Judith and Sidney Swartz Director
and Professor of Politics
Shai Feldman
Associate Director
Kristina Cherniahivsky
Charles (Corky) Goodman Professor
of Middle East History and
Associate Director for Research
Naghmeh Sohrabi
Myra and Robert Kraft Professor
of Arab Politics
Eva Bellin
Henry J. Leir Professor of the
Economics of the Middle East
Nader Habibi
Renée and Lester Crown Professor
of Modern Middle East Studies
Pascal Menoret
Senior Fellows
Abdel Monem Said Aly, PhD
Kanan Makiya
Goldman Senior Fellow
Khalil Shikaki, PhD
Research Fellow
David Siddhartha Patel, PhD
Marilyn and Terry Diamond
Junior Research Fellow
Mohammed Masbah, PhD
Neubauer Junior Research Fellow
Serra Hakyamez, PhD
Junior Research Fellows
Harith Al-Qarawee, PhD
Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux, PhD
Ahmad Shokr, PhD
November 2016
No. 103
Repartitioning the Sykes-Picot Middle
East? Debunking Three Myths
David Siddhartha Patel
M
ay 16, 2016, marked the 100
th
anniversary of the Sykes-
Picot Agreement between Great Britain and France,
which envisioned a division of the Ottoman territories in
the Levant and Mesopotamia between the imperial powers.
This plan, secretly agreed to during World War I, is often
described as the moment when Europeans began to draw
“lines in the sand” that became the ostensibly “articial”
borders of the modern Middle East. The centennial came less
than two years after the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
released a pair of propaganda videos in which they bulldoze
a breach through the berm delineating the Iraq-Syria border
and declare “the end of Sykes-Picot.”
1
ISIS’s aunting of their
control over this imperial-era border, coupled with ongoing
conicts and state weakness in the Middle East, has led
scores of journalists, think tank researchers, and Western
policy makers to ask whether the region’s system of states and
borders is unraveling, and if new, less “articial” borders are
emerging naturally or might be drawn at what amounts to a
new Sykes-Picot moment.
2
In the words of one writer, “The
Arab world today is ripe for reorganization.”
3
This Brief argues that the Sykes-Picot Agreement and its implications for today
are often misunderstood and misapplied. To this end, it examines three myths
that are widely reected in opinion pieces commemorating the centennial, in
analyses of the fragility of the regional state system and in discussions of ISIS’s
David Siddhartha Patel is
a Research Fellow at the
Crown Center and lecturer
in Politics at Brandeis
University.
The opinions and ndings expressed
in this Brief belong to the author
exclusively and do not reect those of the
Crown Center or Brandeis University.
avowed ambition to erase borders:
1. The Sykes-Picot Agreement marks the moment when Europeans drew
articial states and borders on a blank map of the Middle East, with little
consideration given to local groups or facts on the ground;
2. ISIS’s expansion, and its control of territory in both Iraq and Syria,
represents an unprecedented challenge to this regional state system; and
3. A collapse of colonial-era states would result in smaller, “more natural,” and
more peaceful polities dened by relatively homogeneous ethnic or sectarian
identity groups. These myths undergird the narrative that Western policy
makers should welcome partition—de facto or de jure—as a solution to
ongoing conicts in Iraq and Syria.
This Brief challenges each of these myths. It argues, rst, that there was no
“Sykes-Picot moment” one hundred years ago when borders were carved onto
a tabula rasa; second, that ISIS’s ambition to erase state borders in the region
is neither novel nor unprecedented; and third, that Westerners and Arabs
understand “the end of Sykes-Picot” in fundamentally different ways, in terms
of retractive versus expansionist borders. This disconnect in the “cartographic
imagination” of outsiders vis-à-vis that of most Arabs contributes to widely
held suspicions regarding U.S. and Western intentions, which are exacerbated
by the awed narrative of ethnic and sectarian partition as a natural solution to
regional conicts.
Myth #1 — The Sykes-Picot Agreement is the moment
when Europeans drew articial states and borders on a
blank map of the Middle East with little consideration
given to local groups or facts on the ground.
A September 2013 episode of Comedy Central’s The Daily Show humorously
captures the prevailing perception of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. John Oliver,
wearing a colonial-era uniform and pith safari helmet and calling himself “Sir
Archibald Mapsalot III,” cavalierly draws lines on a map of the Middle East as
he explains to the host, Jon Stewart, “Look, there’s nothing the Arab respects,
Jon, more than a strong, steady white hand drawing arbitrary lines twixt their
ridiculous tribal allegiances.”
4
Much of the commentary around the centennial of the Sykes-Picot Agreement
saw it as just that: the moment when Europeans began to draw today’s borders
on a blank map without regard to local identities or historical precedents. This
is reected in a widely cited passage in David Fromkin’s famous history of the
region: “It was an era in which Middle Eastern countries and frontiers were
fabricated in Europe. Iraq and what we now call Jordan, for example, were
British inventions, lines drawn on an empty map by British politicians after the
First World War; while the boundaries of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq were
established by a British civil servant in 1922.”
5
This perception is mistaken, for three reasons: rst, the Sykes-Picot Agreement
had very little to do with the states and borders of today’s Middle East. The
primary goal of the negotiations between the eponymous diplomats Sir Mark
Sykes and François Georges-Picot was to designate anticipated spheres of
inuence for Great Britain and France in Ottoman territories in Southwest Asia,
thereby both limiting costly post-war competition between European powers
2
and securing territories and coastlines important for those powers’ strategic interests.
6
Much of what was agreed upon
in 1916 was never implemented; the states and borders that exist today show little resemblance to those envisioned in the
Sykes-Picot Agreement Map—the original of which, signed by Sykes and Picot, is seen here.
Figure 1: The Sykes-Picot Agreement Map
7
What states and borders did Sykes and Picot envision? France and Britain proposed an independent Arab state or a
confederation of Arab states, “under the suzerainty of an Arab chief,” in the areas marked “A” and “B” on the map.
8
France
would have exclusive “priority of right of enterprise and local loans” in area “A” and the right to supply advisors and
foreign functionaries to the state (or states) in area “A,” and Britain would have similar rights in area “B.” In the portions
of the map shaded in blue and red, France and Great Britain, respectively, would “establish such direct or indirect
administration or control as they desire and as they may think t to arrange with the Arab state or confederation of Arab
states.” In other words, France would have de facto control over much of what is now south-central Turkey and the
coastlines of modern Syria and Lebanon, and Britain would control the Tigris-Euphrates River system from just north of
Baghdad to the Persian Gulf, territory that was close to facilities of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company.
9
Little, if any, of this vision, however, came to pass. The independent Arab state or confederation of states proposed in
areas “A” and “B” never emerged. These areas in fact joined parts of the proposed zones of de facto control to become the
cores of Syria and Iraq, whereas Sykes-Picot clearly envisioned a very different patchwork of sovereignties. Furthermore,
borders moved. The Agreement assigned Mosul, Irbil, and much of today’s al-Anbar province west of Fallujah to the
French zone of inuence; these territories instead soon became parts of the British Mandate. As Sara Pursley writes,
“The only border of present-day Iraq . . . that can possibly be called a Sykes-Picot line is the southern-most section of its
border with Syria, traversing the desert region from Jordan up to the Euphrates river near al-Qa`im—though, as we have
seen, this was not the border of Iraq in Sykes-Picot but the boundary between the A and B regions of the ‘independent
3
Arab state.’...The remaining, longer, section of the Iraq-
Syria border, from al-Qa`im to Turkey, does not exist in
any form in Sykes-Picot.”
10
The boundary between Iraq
and Syria was delimited in general terms by a French-
British agreement in 1920 and again in 1922, but the actual
boundary that ISIS celebrated erasing in 2014 was not set
until 1932, by the League of Nations.
11
The second reason that Fromkin’s and others’
understanding of Sykes-Picot is mistaken is that there
was in fact no one moment in 1916 at which the map of
the Middle East was drawn. As in other world regions, the
emergence of a territorial state system took place gradually,
and borders took decades to settle. Post-war conferences
and agreements that carved up Ottoman territories—the
Paris Peace Conference of 1919, the San Remo Agreement
of 1920, the Treaty of Sèvres in 1920, the Cairo Conference
of 1921, the Conference of Lausanne in 1922–23—played
important roles in shaping the map of the Middle East,
but the details of those agreements and the negotiations
that resulted in them reveal that the process by which the
map emerged was complex and highly contingent, and
that local actors often stymied European efforts to draw
borders and divide territories.
12
A few nascent states, such
as Hatay State and the short-lived Kingdom of Kurdistan,
vanished from the map.
13
New ones, such as Jordan and
Israel, emerged.
Finally, Europeans did not draw borders willy-nilly,
without regard to local factors.
14
Local actors and historical
precedents played important roles in determining not only
what borders were drawn but even which proposed states
survived and which did not. The Sykes-Picot Agreement,
for example, awarded much of south-central Turkey,
including the cities of Adana, Gaziantep, Diyarbakir, and
areas north as far as Sivas, to the French zone of direct
inuence; these and later efforts to carve up Anatolia
were stymied by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Local actors and
politics heavily inuenced the specic location of the Iraq-
Syria border, including the “ridiculous tribal allegiances”
mocked in the Daily Show skit mentioned earlier.
15
International conferences and agreements, including San
Remo, sought to contain nationalist demands that had
already begun to emerge at the turn of the century, and
foreign powers were, to some extent, constrained by what
was, and was not, possible to implement.
Local precedents for seemingly “articial” states also
mattered more than analysts often recognize. For example,
scholars have demonstrated the extent to which the
modern state of Iraq had Ottoman administrative roots.
Sara Pursley describes an 1893 Ottoman map displaying
the label “al-‘Iraq al-‘Arabi” (Arab Iraq) to designate a
geographical area stretching across the administrative
provinces of Basra and Baghdad, and argues that the Sykes-
Picot boundaries of “Iraq” correspond to the Ottoman
map.
16
Similarly, Visser argues that Iraq had several sorts
of antecedents that predated the British invasion of 1914,
including the name “Iraq,” patterns of administrative
centralization under Baghdad, and even a nascent sense of
patriotism.
17
The legacy of the Sykes-Picot Agreement is not in the map
of today’s Middle East: The vast majority of it was never
implemented, and the borders that in fact emerged were
instead inuenced, to varying extents, by local actors and
precedents. The expression “Sykes-Picot” might be better
understood as a regional colloquialism for the idea that
Western powers attempted to shape the future of the
region to serve their interests.
Myth #2 — ISIS’s expansion, and its
control of territory in both Iraq and Syria,
represents an unprecedented challenge to
the colonial-era state system of the Middle
East.
In June 2014, ISIS released a pair of videos: one, in Arabic,
entitled “The Breaking of the Borders,” and a second, in
English, called “The End of Sykes-Picot.”
18
In the former,
ISIS uses bulldozers to breach the berm delineating the
Iraq-Syria border, and a cavalcade of captured Humvees
and troop transports drives through. As inspirational
music plays, an elderly Arab man watches this purported
century-old legacy of Sykes-Picot being erased and wipes
tears from his eyes, just before an ISIS soldier respectfully
kisses his forehead. In the English-language follow-up
video, a young ISIS ghter identied as Abu Sayya gives
a tour of what he calls “the so-called border of Sykes-
Picot,” proudly proclaiming, “We don’t recognize it,
and we will never recognize it.”
19
Standing in front of a
seemingly outdated map of the border region, he declares,
“Now it is all one country, one dawlat [state], one umma
[community].”
20
Although ISIS is usually understood as the latest
incarnation of a global Sala-jihadist movement—it is
often described as “al-Qaeda 3.0”
21
—its “end of Sykes-
Picot” rhetoric is not unique to Islamists and can be
seen as a manifestation of a long tradition of irredentist
movements in the region. ISIS grew out of the crucible
of post-Saddam Iraq; its predecessor organizations
incorporated many disenfranchised Iraqi Sunni Arabs
and ex-Baathists into its ranks. Several scholars and
writers have noted the high percentage of ISIS leaders
who are Sunni Arabs with Iraqi Baathist connections, and
have suggested that ISIS’s military strategy and tactics
reect the incorporation of many members of Saddam’s
4
former security forces.
22
But few, if any, have gone further
and linked ISIS’s rhetoric about Sykes-Picot to Baathist
inuences; instead, studies of ISIS’s ideology emphasize
its millenarian proclivities.
23
But ISIS’s rhetoric of
erasing borders is similar to that of other post-Ottoman
supranationalist movements in the region, including
the Baath Parties of both Iraq and Syria, Nasser’s pan-
Arabism, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, which
advocates for a Greater Syria encompassing the Levant and
Mesopotamia, from Lebanon to Kuwait.
24
Different branches of the Baath Party ruled Iraq from
1968 to 2003 and Syria since 1963. In Iraq, the party’s
slogan of “one Arab nation with an eternal mission” was
inscribed on all major party documents,
25
and leaders of
the party spoke incessantly about the need to liberate
and unify all Arab countries. Baath ideology taught that
differences between Arabs were unimportant and created
by outsiders, and would disappear with the awakening
of Arab consciousness. The unication of Arabs was seen
as a moral necessity, and the Party’s task was to remove
what it saw as colonial-era boundaries and unite Arabs in
a single political entity.
26
In this sense, ISIS’s transnational
Islamism echoes Arab nationalists’ calls, with “Muslim”
substituted for “Arab.”
ISIS’s actual challenge to borders also nds echoes in
Arab nationalism. The region’s borders seem weak and
fragile today, but the lines seemed even blurrier in 1958. In
February of that year, Syria and Egypt merged to form the
United Arab Republic, spurring the Hashemite monarchies
of Iraq and Jordan to attempt their own rival merger as
the Arab Federation—which collapsed six months later,
after the overthrow of the Iraqi monarchy by army ofcers.
It then appeared as though Iraq would join the UAR,
with Jordan and Lebanon perhaps not far behind; but the
UAR too broke up, in 1961. Other attempts at unication
include the United Arab States confederations with
Yemen and Gadda’s attempts to merge Libya, at various
times in the 1970s, with the UAE, Sudan, and Tunisia.
Yet, the borders that Arab nationalism threatened to
sweep away remained—or, in the case of the United Arab
Republic, reemerged by 1961 with its dissolution. The state
system of the Middle East, then, has weathered numerous
challenges—and the current challenge from ISIS in several
ways echoes earlier eras.
Myth #3 — A collapse of colonial-era states
would result in smaller, “more natural,” and
more peaceful polities dened by relatively
homogeneous ethnic or sectarian identity
groups.
Events in recent years have led more than a dozen Western
journalists, analysts, and academics to imagine what
the map of the Middle East might look like after “the
end of Sykes-Picot.” Historian Daniel Neep refers to this
disparagingly as exercises of what he calls “cartographic
imagination” and explores several such maps.
27
A few
appeared in 2006, when violence was particularly bad
in Iraq, and a large urry was created in the summer of
2014, after ISIS rolled across the Syria-Iraq border and
proclaimed the unraveling of the Sykes-Picot “conspiracy.”
The January/February 2008 cover of The Atlantic shows a
possible future map of the region “After Iraq.” It resembles
the board game RISK, complete with a pair of dice and
movable ags. Jeffrey Goldberg’s accompanying article
refers to the “intrinsically articial qualities of several
states.”
28
Robin Wright, writing in the New York Times in
September 2013, imagined a “remapped Middle East” that
reected Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia fracturing in
disparate ways.
29
The new country “Wahhabistan” would
be among those born.
One thing that these maps, all of them created by
Westerners, have in common is that they cartographically
imagine existing states fragmenting into smaller polities
that are most often dened by purported ethnic or
sectarian identity groups instead of by natural features or
historical antecedents.
30
All place heavy emphasis on ethnic
and religious minorities. In these imagined maps, “natural”
borders are ones that do not divide ethnic or religious
groups across borders.
Perhaps the most famous (or infamous) such map appeared
in a June 2006 article in Armed Forces Journal by Ralph Peters
entitled “Blood Border: How a Better Middle East Would
Look.”
31
Peters presents a map with borders that “redress
the wrongs suffered by the most signicant ‘cheated’
population groups” (e.g., the Kurds, Baluch, Arab Shia)
but fail, as he acknowledges, to adequately address other
minorities (e.g., Christians and Ismailis). Peters believes
that these new borders will lead to a more peaceful Middle
East and calls the existing borders “colossal, man-made
deformities.” “A Frankenstein’s monster of a state sewn
together from ill-tting parts,” he writes, “Iraq should
have been divided into three smaller states immediately
[after Baghdad fell in 2003].” He mentions the “unnatural
state of Saudi Arabia” and Iran’s “madcap boundaries.”
Peters’ remapped Middle East sees the emergence of a
Unied Azerbaijan, a Free Kurdistan, an Arab Shia state,
and Free Baluchistan, as well as a Greater Lebanon (which
he refers to as “Phoenicia reborn”).
These exercises in cartographic imagination reveal more
about the map drawers than they do about the people
and dynamics of the region. In particular, the assumption
5
that smaller “ethnic” states will naturally emerge and be
more stable is an outgrowth of the U.S. foreign policy
establishment’s experience in the Balkans after the
breakup and collapse of the Soviet Union. This is reected
in the memoirs of ofcials such as Ambassador Christopher
Hill, who repeatedly sees parallels between individuals
and events in Iraq and his formative experiences in the
Balkans.
32
It is also evident in journalistic coverage.
Fred Kaplan, for example, describes long-simmering
ethnic hatreds in the region: The Ottomans, he says,
protected “Sunnis and Shiites, Arabs and Jews, Muslims
and Christians” from each other, and the collapse of the
Ottoman order in 1918 unleashed the “demon of national,
ethnic, and sectarian disputes over who controls which
territory at what border precisely.”
33
Kaplan says that
“only suffocating totalitarian regimes could control”
articial countries in the region, implying that the decline
of strongmen has unleashed similar demons today. Indeed,
the results of the Dayton Accords and the emergence of
independent Bosnian, Croatian, and Serbian states seem
to provide the shared model for Western policy makers’
thinking about how seemingly intractable conicts in Syria
and Iraq might end.
This Western perspective contrasts sharply with many,
perhaps most, Arabs’ cartographic imaginings of what
the end of Sykes-Picot might look like. A printed poster
occasionally seen in schools and bookshops in Arab
republics, for example, shows “The history of the Arab
nation through 15 centuries.” It is a timeline of Arab
history, from 630 to whenever the latest version was
printed, with columns representing the twenty-two
members of the Arab League, grouped geographically and
differentiated by colors that show when those countries’
territories shared a ruler. Periods and regions of “unity”
include the early Islamic conquests after the death of the
Prophet and the great caliphal empires: the Umayyads,
Abassids, Mamluks, and Ottomans. The timeline changes
considerably after World War I, showing the region
dramatically divided and subdivided over time under
headings such as “British presence” or “French occupation.”
Thus, the poster depicts a long history featuring periods of
unity and independence, which end decisively at the hands
of colonial powers.
For most Arabs, the true “end of Sykes-Picot” would mean
the end of imperial-era divisions created to deliberately
ensure the region’s long-term dependence on and
subordination to the West. Existing states would not
collapse down to atomistic ethnic and sectarian groups;
rather, populations would unite and aggregate up. Arabs,
and perhaps the wider Islamic world, would cease to be
divided into distinct state entities. Both the Western and
Arab views see the borders of the Middle East as articial,
but they differ considerably in their expectations of
whether those borders would dissolve in an expansionist
or retractive fashion.
This clash of these two perspectives is evident in a piece
recently written by the director general of a prominent
Gulf think tank. Recalling that the Sykes-Picot Agreement
was secret and only revealed later after Communists came
to power in Russia, he wrote that “the fact that there are
no current plans that have been publicly announced by
certain powers to divide the region does not mean that
such plans do not exist—perhaps the details will become
evident at a later time.” He continues, “The new lines
drawn under the ‘second Sykes-Picot’ will be lled with
hatred and animosity; they will be ethnic and sectarian
borders that detonate with blood and desolation, marring
the entire region as it plunges into chaos. Their objective is
to create a new Middle East—one of various dysfunctional
imbalances that counteract the interest of the Arab
world in a bid to serve the interests of non-Arab regional
powers, namely Iran and Israel.”
34
The rise of a “landscape
of sectarian states” in the Middle East, however, would be
understood differently in the region than it likely would be
in Western capitals.
There is in fact little evidence that there are “more natural”
states or borders in the region, waiting to be realized.
35
It
is a truism that all states are created, but the fact remains
that most states in the region have been around for at least
eighty years, shaping their populations through education,
symbols, and ritual. In the uproar surrounding the Arab
Spring, no signicant new separatist movements emerged,
aside from already existing ones among Kurds in Iraq and
South Yemenis, as well as increased demands for local
autonomy in parts of Libya and in Kurdish Syria (Rojava).
36
State borders in the Levant today appear faded and uid;
but, they appeared similarly faded in 1958. States and
borders in the Middle East have in fact been remarkably
resilient and durable since the 1970s.
37
In addition, differences within ethnic and sectarian groups
are often just as great as differences between them.
Consider Iraq. Iraq’s two main Kurdish factions fought a
bloody civil war in the mid-1990s, which ended only after
U.S.-led mediation. Sunni Arabs in Iraq have been deeply
divided since 2003,
38
and ISIS has probably killed more
fellow Sunnis than it has members of other groups. Finally,
as Harith Hasan Al-Qarawee points out, Shiites in Iraq are
divided by class, region, tribe, and other distinctions.
39
In short, there is little reason to expect homogeneous
ethnic or sectarian “post-Sykes-Picot” states to be more
peaceful. Indeed, partition of existing states might just
make other cleavages the axes of contention, as the violence
in South Sudan tragically demonstrates.
6
Conclusion
This Brief challenges the core assumptions behind a
narrative commonly encountered in op-eds and papers
asking whether we are approaching “The End of Sykes-
Picot.” Those assumptions include the belief that the
Middle East’s states and borders are articial because
they were laid down by imperial powers beginning with
Sykes-Picot. The rise of ISIS and ongoing civil wars in the
region are assumed to pose an unprecedented challenge to
those states and borders, and to have revealed their frailty
and illegitimacy. The unraveling of borders, it is assumed,
will nally permit people to fall (or be moved) into their
“natural” conguration among relatively homogeneous
ethnic or sectarian polities. According to this narrative, the
dilemma for Western policy makers, therefore, is whether
they should wait for ethnic partitioning to occur naturally,
or convene a conference of great and regional powers
to either defend the old order or manage the inevitable
redrawing of the map.
The dilemma is a false one because it rests on a number of
myths. First, the borders of today’s Middle East were not
actually drawn by colonial authorities via the Sykes-Picot
Agreement. In fact, since World War I, the line-up of states
in the region has evolved, with some borders changed
and others nally demarcated. Locals played important
roles throughout. Second, ISIS’s ambition to erase state
borders echoes the goals of other movements in other eras,
when the region’s state system seemed equally at risk of
collapse. Finally, Westerners and Arabs understand “the
end of Sykes-Picot” in different ways, in terms of retractive
versus expansionist borders. The emergence of explicitly
Sunni, Shiite, or Kurdish states would be seen by many
Westerners as “natural”—but within the region, it would
be seen by many as serving Western interests.
Endnotes
1 “The Breaking of the Borders” [in Arabic];* “The End of
Sykes-Picot” [in English].*
2 See, for example, Robin Wright, “How the Curse of Sykes-
Picot Still Haunts the Middle East,” The New Yorker, April
30, 2016;* Thanassis Cambanis, “The Middle East’s Fading
Frontiers,” Boston Globe, May 1, 2016;* David Ignatius, “How
to Put the Middle East Back Together,” Washington Post, May
3, 2016;* Michael Rubin, “Was Sykes-Picot a Bad Thing?”
AEIdeas (American Enterprise Institute), May 3, 2016;*
Itamar Rabinovich, “The End of Sykes-Picot? Reections on
the Prospects of the Arab State System” (Saban Center for
Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, Middle East Memo
Number 32, February 2014);* Patrick Cockburn, “Is It the
End of Sykes-Picot?” London Review of Books 35, no. 11, June 6,
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2013, pp. 3–5.*
Parag Khanna, Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global
Civilization (New York: Random House, 2016), p. 100. In
contrast to most outsiders’ visions of reorganization, which
focus on ethnic and sectarian groups, Khanna calls for the
region to “recover its historical cartography of internal
connectivity” among “urban oases” (p. 101).
http://www.cc.com/video-clips/kovgs5/the-daily-show-
with-jon-stewart-sir-archibald-mapsalot-iii.*
David Fromkin, A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman
Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East (New York:
Avon Books, 1989), p. 17.
James Barr, A Line in the Sand: The Anglo-French Struggle for the
Middle East, 1914-1948 (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2012).
There are several versions of the Sykes-Picot Agreement
Map. This is the original, signed by the two men. Sykes-
Picot Agreement Map signed by Mark Sykes and François
Georges-Picot, May 8, 1916 (Image from UK National
Archives MPK1/426, FO 371/2777 [folio 398]).* See also a
map that overlays the territorial divisions of Sykes-Picot
with contemporary state borders.*
See the text of The Sykes-Picot Agreement.*
The British Navy had largely switched from coal-burning
to oil-burning ships by 1912, making such facilities a vital
national interest. Elizabeth Monroe, Britain’s Moment in the
Middle East, 1914–1956 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University
Press, 1963), p. 98.
Sara Pursley, “‘Lines Drawn on an Empty Map’: Iraq’s
Borders and the Legend of the Articial State (Part 1),”
Jadaliyya, June 2, 2015.*
Set down in the “Report of the Commission Entrusted by
the Council with the Study of the Frontier between Syria
and Iraq” (Geneva, September 10, 1932).
Nick Danforth, “Forget Sykes-Picot. It’s the Treaty of Sèvres
That Explains the Modern Middle East,” Foreign Policy,
August 10, 2015; Cyrus Schayegh, “The Mandates and/as
Decolonization,” in The Routledge Handbook of the History of the
Middle East Mandates, ed. Cyrus Schayegh and Andrew Arsan
(New York: Rutledge, 2015), pp. 412–19.*
David Siddhartha Patel, “Remembering Failed States in the
Middle East,” Project on Middle East Political Science, May 3,
2015.*
In an oft-cited passage, Barr (2012, p. 12) writes that “Sykes
sliced his nger across the map that lay before them on the
table. ‘I should like to draw a line from the “e” in Acre to the
last “k” in Kirkuk,’ he said.”
See, for example, Eliezer Tauber, The Formation of Modern
Syria and Iraq (Portland, OR: Frank Cass, 1995) and Nelida
Fuccaro, The Other Kurds: Yazidis in Colonial Iraq (London: I.B.
Tauris, 1999).
Pursley, “‘Lines Drawn on an Empty Map’ (Part 1).”* See
also, Sara Pursley, “‘Lines Drawn on an Empty Map’: Iraq’s
Borders and the Legend of the Articial State (Part 2),”
Jadaliyya, June 3, 2015.*
Reidar Visser, “Proto-political Conceptions of ‘Iraq’ in Late
Ottoman Times,” International Journal of Contemporary Iraqi
Studies 3, no. 2 (2009), pp. 143–54.*
“The Breaking of the Borders” [in Arabic]; “The End of
Sykes-Picot” [in English].
Abu Sayya’s real name is Bastián Alexis Vásquez; he was
7
born in Norway to Chilean parents and resided in Barcelona, Spain, before joining
ISIS. Vasquez was reportedly killed in January 2016 [in Spanish].*
20 As was mentioned above, that particular border does not date to Sykes-Picot.
21 Al-Qaeda “Central,” the organization based in Afghanistan and Pakistan and led
rst by Osama bin Laden and then by Ayman al-Zawahiri, is seen as al-Qaeda 1.0,
and the various pre-ISIS incarnations of the more sectarian Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda,
led initially by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, are often dubbed al-Qaeda 2.0.
22 See Martin Chulov, “ISIS: The Inside Story,” The Guardian, December 11, 2014,* and
David Siddhartha Patel, “ISIS in Iraq: What We Get Wrong and Why 2015 Is Not
2007 Redux,” Middle East Brief, no. 87 (Brandeis University, Crown Center for Middle
East Studies, January 2015).*
23 William Faizi McCants, The ISIS Apocalypse: The History, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision of
the Islamic State (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2015); Fawaz A. Gerges, ISIS: A History
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016).
24 For a history of Arab nationalism, see Adeed Dawisha, Arab Nationalism in the
Twentieth Century: From Triumph to Despair (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press,
2002).
25 Joseph Sassoon, Saddam Hussein’s Ba’th Party: Inside an Authoritarian Regime (New York:
Cambridge University Press, 2012), p. 9.
26 This is the central theme of the fundamental principles of the Baath Party
constitution, adopted by the rst congress of the party in 1947.*
27 Daniel Neep, “Focus: The Middle East, Hallucination, and the Cartographic
Imagination,” Discover Society, January 3, 2015.*
28 Jeffrey Goldberg, “After Iraq: A Report from the New Middle East—and a Glimpse
of Its Possible Future,” The Atlantic, January/February 2008.* Goldberg did a follow-
up piece in June 2014: “The New Map of the Middle East: Why Should We Fight the
Inevitable Break-up of Iraq?”*
29 Robin Wright, “Imagining a Remapped Middle East,” New York Times, September 28,
2013.*
30 Journalists were not the only people to engage in such exercises. Vanity Fair brought
together four U.S. Middle East experts (Dennis Ross, David Fromkin, Kenneth
Pollack, and Daniel Byman) to produce a map. See Cullen Murphy and Haisam
Hussein, “Lines in the Sand,” Vanity Fair, January 2008.*
31 Ralph Peters, “Blood Borders: How a Better Middle East Would Look,” Armed Forces
Journal, June 1, 2006.*
32 Christopher R. Hill, Outpost: Life on the Frontlines of American Diplomacy: A Memoir (New
York: Simon & Schuster, 2014).
33 Robert D. Kaplan, “The Ruins of Empire in the Middle East,” Foreign Policy, May 25,
2015.*
34 Jamal Sanad Al Suwaidi, “Will the Region’s History of Sykes-Picot Repeat Itself?”
The National, April 5, 2016.*
35 Lawrence of Arabia proposed an alternative map of the region, one based largely
on ethnic identities (such as Arabs or Kurds).* But, his map does not address the
difcult question of what to do with mixed areas, and he ignores sectarian issues.
Commenting on Lawrence’s map, Pursley notes his question marks on the mixed
areas surrounding Mosul. See Pursley, “‘Lines Drawn on an Empty Map’ (Part 1).”*
36 This may not be surprising. Although the number of states in the world has nearly
tripled since World War II, the political and economic factors that economists have
linked to demands for autonomy and independence—namely, democratization and
international openness—are decidedly weak in the Middle East and North Africa
(MENA). See Alberto Alesina and Enrico Spolaore, “What’s Happening to the
Number and Size of Nations?” E-International Relations, November 9, 2015. *
37 Steven Simon made this point just as ISIS released its videos in June 2014. “Rumors
of Sykes-Picot’s Death,” he wrote, “are Greatly Exaggerated.” (“The Middle East’s
Durable Map,” Foreign Affairs, August 26, 2014).*
8
38 On the inability of Sunnis in Iraq to coordinate, see David Siddhartha Patel, Islam, Information, and the Rise and Fall of Social Order in
Iraq (unpublished book manuscript).
39 Harith Hasan Al-Qarawee, “Sectarian Politics and State Formation in Iraq,” (presentation at the Weatherhead Center for
International Affairs, Harvard University, January 29, 2015).
*Weblinks are available in the online version at
www.brandeis.edu/crown
9
10
Repartitioning the Sykes-Picot Middle East?
Debunking Three Myths
David Siddhartha Patel
Recent Middle East Briefs:
Available on the Crown Center website: www.brandeis.edu/crown
Nader Habibi and Fatma El-Hamidi, “Why Are Egyptian Youth Burning Their
University Diplomas? The Overeducation Crises in Egypt,” No. 102
Pascal Menoret, “Repression and Protest in Saudi Arabia,” No. 101
Harith Hasan Al-Qarawee, “From Maliki to Abadi: The Challenge of Being
Iraq’s Prime Minister,” No. 100
Richard A. Nielsen, “The Changing Face of Islamic Authority in the Middle
East,” No. 99