(1) Introduction
North Africa has conventionally been the backyard of major Al-Qaida terror activity, pre-
dominantly Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) - and to this day the group poses a
significant threat to the region and to Western civilians and interests. The terror threats
have created a sense of insecurity in major parts of the region, and AQIM has been the
primary perpetrator. Indeed, it has a long record of bombing and kidnapping attacks
against Westerners, extending its reach from Algeria to Tunisia, Mali and other countries.
The region has also witnessed the emergence of The Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL), further am-
plifying the preexisting sense of insecurity and instability, particularly in light of its seizure of
a major territory in Libya. It has played the role of a de facto governing body in Libya’s Sirte
City, affording it a comfortable launching pad for attacks across other Libyan cities, and
transnationally in Algeria and Tunisia — and potentially in the West.
ISIS and AQIM are highly adversarial toward the West in general and the U.S. in particular.
They possess a long track record of issuing threats and carrying out attacks aimed at
Western civilians and economic interests. Albeit both upholding the jihadist ideology, AQIM
and ISIS are highly oppositional toward each other. Their potential competition for domi-
nance drives each group to reassert its influence over the jihadi landscape in North Africa,
which significantly raises the threat prospects against Westerners.
In addition, these groups thrive on being in the spotlight, and targeting Westerners brings
them considerable PR value. Looking at today’s jihadi landscape in North Africa and the
record of these groups, I believe that they will continue to pose a significant threat to the
West in the future, regionally and internationally.
(2) Picture of the Threat
On March 6, 2017, al-Zalaqa Media Foundation, a jihadi media unit affiliated with al-Qaida,
released a video featuring the leaders of the Mali-based jihadi groups Ansar al-Dine, al-
Murabitoune, Macina Liberation Front, and the Sahara Region. In the video, Iyad Ag Ghali,
the top leader of Ansar al-Dine, announced the creation of “The Group for Support of Islam
and Muslims,” a new jihadi collective encompassing the aforementioned groups, declaring
the new collective’s allegiance to al-Qaida’s top leader Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. Henceforth,