FOUR EU FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS - Opportunities and

FOUR EU FREE TRADE

AGREEMENTS

Opportunities and Impacts for Ireland

FINAL REPORT

PREPARED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF ENTERPRISE, TRADE

AND EMPLOYMENT

MARCH 2021

AUTHORS

Sigurd Næss-Schmidt

Eva Rytter Sunesen

Erik Dahlberg

Morten May Hansen

Joshua Brown

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This report is prepared for the Irish Government and has benefitted from valuable inputs from all

the stakeholders listed in Appendix A and from dialogue with the Department of Enterprise, Trade

and Employment and the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine.

Copenhagen Economics would also like to acknowledge the contribution of Professor Joseph Fran-

cois and Professor Alan Mathews to this report.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgement 0

Executive summary 8

Acronyms and definitions 16

1 Introduction and background 17

1.1 Purpose and scope of the study 17

1.2 Approach and method 18

2 The impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on Ireland’s

trade with South Korea 24

2.1 Ireland’s trade with South Korea 24

2.2 Overview of the EU–South Korea FTA 26

2.3 Realised impacts of the FTA on Ireland-South

Korea trade 28

2.4 Long-run impacts on Ireland-South Korea trade 30

2.5 FDI between Ireland and South Korea 31

2.6 Concluding remarks 33

3 Impacts of EU FTAS on Ireland’s trade with

Canada, Japan and Mexico 34

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

3.1 Ireland’s trade with Canada, Japan and Mexico

3.2 EU FTAS with Canada, Japan and Mexico 36

3.3 Impacts of the FTAS on Irish trade with Canada,

Japan and Mexico 41

3.4 Concluding remarks 44

4 Macroeconomic impacts of the FTAS 46

4.1 Impacts of the FTAS on Ireland’s global trade 46

4.2 Impacts of the FTAS on Irish GDP and national

income 48

4.3 Impacts of the FTAs on Irish wages, consumer

prices and welfare 49

4.4 Concluding remarks 51

5 Sectoral impacts of the FTAS 52

5.1 Impacts of the FTAS on production across sectors

5.2 Main sectors to benefit from the FTAS 54

5.3 Sectors that should prepare to adjust 59

5.4 Concluding remarks 60

6 Policy conclusions and recommendations 61

6.1 Main policy Conclusions 61

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

6.2 Negotiating the best possible outcome for Ireland

6.3 Domestic policies to pursue the opportunities from

EU FTAS and mitigate challenges 65

6.4 Concluding remarks 69

References 74

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Tariffs on Irish exports to Canada, Japan and

Mexico – six sectors with the highest tariffs before the

FTAs ................................................................................... 41

Table 2 Impacts of the four FTAs in the other

manufacturing sector (percentage change relative to

2030 baseline) .................................................................. 55

Table 3 Impacts of the four FTAs in the business and ICT

sector (percentage change relative to 2030 baseline)

.......................................................................................... 56

Table 4 Impacts of the four FTAs in the chemicals (incl.

pharmaceutical) sector (percentage change relative

to 2030 baseline) .............................................................. 57

Table 5 Impacts of the four FTAs in the electrical

machinery sector (percentage change relative to 2030

baseline) ........................................................................... 58

Table 6 Impacts of the four FTAs in the wholesale and

retail sector ....................................................................... 59

Table 7 Market access for Irish exports of meat products

to Canada, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea ............. 68

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 Composition of Ireland’s exports of goods and

services, 2019 ................................................................... 10

Figure 2 Irish exports to South Korea, Canada, Japan,

and Mexico, 2010-2019 ................................................... 13

Figure 3 Irish exports of goods and services since 2010 14

Figure 4 Irish imports from Japan, Canada, Mexico, and

South Korea, 2010-2019 ................................................... 15

Figure 5 Overview of the four EU FTAs analysed in the

study ................................................................................. 18

Figure 6 Sector composition used in the study .............. 21

Figure 7 How to read the charts (illustrative figure) ...... 22

Figure 8 Irish exports to South Korea, 2005-2019 ............ 25

Figure 9 Irish imports from South Korea, 2005-2019 ........ 26

Figure 10 Key elements and timeline of the EU-South

Korea FTA ......................................................................... 27

Figure 11 Impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on Irish

exports to South Korea .................................................... 28

Figure 12 Impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on Irish

imports from South Korea ................................................ 29

Figure 13 Impact of the EU–South Korea FTA on bilateral

trade by source of gain .................................................. 30

Figure 14 Impact of the four FTAs on Irish trade with

South Korea ...................................................................... 31

Figure 15 Number of FDI projects between Ireland and

South Korea, 2003-2016 ................................................... 32

Figure 16 Average value of FDI projects between

Ireland and South Korea, 2003-2016 .............................. 33

Figure 17 Irish trade with Canada, Japan and Mexico,

2019 ................................................................................... 34

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 18 Irish exports of goods and services to Canada,

Japan and Mexico, 2003-2019 ....................................... 35

Figure 19 Irish imports of goods and services from

Canada, Japan and Mexico, 2003-2019 ....................... 36

Figure 20 Overview of the elements in each FTA that

have been modelled ...................................................... 40

Figure 21 Expected impacts of the FTAs on Irish trade

with Canada, Japan and Mexico ................................. 42

Figure 22 Expected impacts of the four FTAs on Irish

global exports, 2030 ........................................................ 47

Figure 23 Expected impacts of the four FTAs on Irish

global imports, 2030 ........................................................ 48

Figure 24 Expected impacts of the four FTAs on Irish

GDP, 2030 ......................................................................... 49

Figure 25 Expected impact on real wages by skill groups

.......................................................................................... 50

Figure 26 Expected impacts of the four FTAs on output

by sector ........................................................................... 53

Figure 27 Overview of methodology used to assess

expected reductions in NTB costs .................................. 72

Figure 28 Cumulative impacts of EU FTAs are

incorporated into the CGE model in two steps ............ 73

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

LIST OF BOXES

Box 1 Non-technical description of the applied CGE

model ............................................................................... 20

Box 2 Chamber Trade Connections ............................... 66

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment (DETE) has requested an analysis of the po-

tential economic opportunities and other impacts on Ireland from recent EU Free Trade Agree-

ments (FTAs). The analysis covers a total of four EU FTAs, of which one is already implemented

(with South Korea) and three are concluded (with Canada, Japan and Mexico).

In this study, we assess the economic impacts of these FTAs on the Irish economy. Our assessment

relies in part on detailed model simulations for the Irish economy using an acknowledged Computa-

ble General Equilibrium (CGE) model. We use the CGE model to quantify the expected macroeco-

nomic and sectoral impacts of the FTAs on the Irish economy in 2030. We do so by comparing two

future states of the Irish economy: One without the FTAs and one with all FTAs in place and fully

implemented.

Aside from the model simulations, we have conducted interviews with a broad range of stakeholders

and undertaken a survey of the actual impacts of the EU-South Korea FTA experienced by Irish

firms. We combine insights from all sources to qualify our conclusions and to formulate policy rec-

ommendations.

It is important to note upfront that the study measures the impacts of the FTAs in terms of the mac-

roeconomic and sectoral opportunities and challenges they provide by increasing market access to

FTA partners. In other words, the impacts are to be interpreted in terms of ‘all other things being

equal’ (i.e. on a ‘no policy change’ basis). They therefore do not account for strategies that the En-

terprise Agencies or Business Representatives or firms may adapt to strategically target the markets

opened up under the FTAs, for example, by connecting Irish exporters with local buyers, supporting

companies with market research, funding product diversification and innovation, or helping com-

panies to navigate administrative and regulatory requirements in local markets.

In addition, the impacts do not measure sub-sectoral or product shifts in a sector, which may not

reveal, for example, moves to higher value-added products. It is also important to highlight that

there are other FTA negotiations that the EU is engaged in or have recently completed, for example

with Mercosur, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam, Chile, and Indonesia. As such, the

study measures the impacts from a selection of EU FTAs and not the totality of opportunities pro-

vided by EU trade agreements.

The FTAs will have a positive impact on the Irish economy

Overall, the four EU FTAs will increase trade, firm productivity, GDP and national income in Ire-

land. Furthermore, real wages are expected to increase due to the FTAs, and the largest increases

are found for low income workers. When trade frictions are removed, imports become cheaper to

the benefit of consumers and Irish firms with global value chains. The increased market access ben-

efits Irish exporters who can specialise in production, where they have a comparative advantage and

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

are productive relative to competitors. Labour and capital will tend to relocate towards highly pro-

ductive sectors, which will have a positive impact on Ireland’s productivity and therefore wages paid

to Irish workers. As a small open economy with a limited home market, Irish producers will benefit

more than producers in large countries who can gain scale in their home markets.

The impact of the FTAs on Irish overall trade depends on whether the increase in Irish trade with a

given partner country is new trade (trade creation) or whether it is diverted from other markets

(trade diversion). The reduction in trade barriers vis-a-vis the FTA partners make the FTA partners

more attractive relative to other trading partners, and Irish exports may be redirected from other

destinations to the FTA partners. Redirected exports may be sold at a higher price, which will have a

positive impact on the value of trade and GDP but may also leave production largely unchanged.

Similarly, the impact depends on the extent to which Irish imports from the FTA partners replace

imports from other countries (at a lower price) or from local producers. Finally, the impact of the

FTAs will depend on the actual utilisation of the agreements, for example, by companies availing of

lower tariff rates.

Generally, we see a strong, positive long run growth trajectory in Irish exports to the four trading

partners without the FTAs. We therefore apply quantitative methods to isolate the impact of the

FTAs. Overall, we find that the FTAs will impact positively on the Irish economy. We estimate that

Irish GDP will be 2.3 per cent higher in 2030 than would have been the case without the four

FTAs in place. The higher GDP is driven by an increase in global total Irish exports of 3.3

per cent and an increase in global imports of 3.3 per cent. The FTA with South Korea had already

resulted in an increase of EUR 273 million in Irish exports to South Korea in 2015. Irish exports

to Japan are expected to increase dramatically as a result of the FTA.

The EU Single Market and EU FTAs will cover 62 per cent of global

Irish exports

In 2019, total Irish exports amounted to EUR 374 billion

of which EUR 118 billion were destined

for the EU and EUR 38 billion to the UK. This study covers Irish exports of goods and services to

South Korea, Canada, Japan, and Mexico (the four FTA partners), which equalled a total of EUR 20

billion, equivalent to 6 per cent of total Irish exports of goods and service in 2019.

In addition to

the four FTA partners analysed in this study, the EU currently has in place 70 trade agreements

with third countries.

Irish exports of goods and services to these 70 countries amounted to an addi-

tional EUR 30 billion in 2019 and accounted for 9 per cent of total Irish exports.

The remaining

EUR 133 billion exports are destined to other third countries.

Including the four FTAs analysed in this study, EU FTAs and the EU Single Market cover around 62

per cent of current global Irish exports.

Irish exports to the four FTA partners have increased by

The EUR 374 billion includes EUR 21 billion services exports that are not allocated to specific countries, based on

data from CSO.

Excluding unallocated services exports

European Commission, DG Trade’s website. This includes Customs Unions, Association Agreements, Stabilisation

Agreements, (Deep and Comprehensive) Free Trade Agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements. These

are all agreements that as a minimum remove or reduce tariffs on bilateral trade and includes many smaller

states.

Excluding unallocated services exports

Based on CSO data from 2019. Excluding unallocated services exports

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

270 per cent over the period 2010-2019, which is more than total Irish exports which have in-

creased 126 per cent in the same period. As exports tend to grow faster with third countries with

whom the EU has an FTA than in general, Irish exports to the FTA countries should be expected to

increase further once the four FTAs are fully implemented.

Figure 1

Composition of Ireland’s exports of goods and services, 2019

EUR billion

Note: EU26 is EU28 less the UK and Ireland. The four FTA partners in focus in this study include South Korea, Can-

ada, Japan. The third countries that the EU has an agreement with is based on agreements as of 2019.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from the CSO

The US accounts for 61 per cent (EUR 81.8 billion) of Ireland’s total exports to third countries with

whom the EU currently does not have a trade agreement in place. Goods exports from Ireland to the

US have grown by almost 150 per cent from 2013 to 2019, which is more than the general increase

in Irish exports and also more than growth in Irish exports to the four FTA countries. An EU-US

FTA would still be beneficial to the Irish economy and it is estimated could add up to 1.1 per cent to

Ireland’s GDP.

Main sectors of opportunities for Ireland

Gains from the EU FTAs are expected to have positive impacts on 5 sectors in Ireland: Business and

ICT services, Chemicals (incl. pharmaceuticals), Electrical machinery, Wholesale and retail, and

Other manufacturing. These sectors account for 89 per cent of the total net increase in output from

the FTAs. The sectors are also expected to have large increases in exports, thus showing that the

FTAs are opening new market opportunities for Irish firms.

The FTAs reduce trade costs and the positive impact on these sectors not only suggests that Ireland

has a comparative advantage in these sectors, but also that these Irish comparative advantages

would be inhibited should the FTAs not be implemented. The FTAs enable a more efficient resource

allocation that contributes to a higher level of output and income in Ireland, showing that Irish

firms are globally competitive and that the opening up of new business opportunities is a boon

See Copenhagen Economics (2015), TTIP impact in Ireland.

118

374

133

Third countries with

which the EU has a

trade agreement

in place

The four FTA

partners covered

in this study

Third countries with

which the EU do not

have a trade

agreement in place

Not allocated

services exports

Total

EU26

169

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

to the Irish economy. This is not just true for exporting firms, but also for Irish firms who supply

inputs to exporting firms, and for Irish firms who rely on foreign inputs for their production.

Furthermore, the reduction of tariffs, simplified customs procedures and more harmonisation of

technical requirements, enhanced market access information will make it easier for small and

medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to engage in international trade, either directly as traders or

as suppliers to other firms. While the benefits of the FTAs accrue to both larger and smaller firms,

the latter may see larger relative total cost reductions from the removal of trade barriers, which may

enable them to move from supplying the domestic or neighbouring markets to also reach faraway

markets to a greater extent than without FTAs.

Main sectors where Ireland should prepare for adjustments

The FTAs open up the EU (and Irish) markets to competition from FTA partners, which means that

not every sector in Ireland will be impacted positively, thereby presenting a competitiveness chal-

lenge. Irish producers of dairy, financial services, insurance, motor vehicles and parts, other ma-

chinery, and other transport equipment may experience increased competition in Ireland and the

EU. Taking this competitive challenge to avoid firm or job losses within these sectors could, for ex-

ample, involve looking for new export markets, cost competitiveness measures or product innova-

tion. Note that impacts are presented as net effects on sectors and do not take account of individual

firm level responses.

Policy responses to meet challenges and maximise opportunities

from the FTAs

Based on the analysis and engagement with stakeholders, 5 policy areas were identified as im-

portant in order to meet challenges and maximise opportunities from the FTAs. The 5 areas were:

SME chapters, increased international cooperation by standardising bodies, protection and enforce-

ment of intellectual property rights, protection of geographical indications, and distribution of EU

tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for beef and sheep meat.

The policy responses focus on removing or minimising barriers to trade while still protecting intel-

lectual property rights and geographical indicators.

The policy focus in Ireland should be to pursue the export opportunities arising from the FTAs. This

can be achieved through policies to raise the awareness and understanding of FTAs, policies to help

Irish firms access export markets in the FTA countries and policies to upgrade skills and promote

R&D.

2021 update

The main research was undertaken in 2018—2019. In March 2021, we updated the Irish trade fig-

ures in the report from 2016 up to and including 2019 (2020 for goods trade). This gave us a chance

to look back at the development since the original report. During this period, the Canada FTA

(CETA) was provisionally applied in 2017, and the Japan FTA entered into force in 2019. Also, there

has been continuous implementation of the EU and South Korea FTA after being provisionally ap-

plied in 2011 and formally ratified in 2015. The agreement with Mexico was agreed in principle in

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

2018 and is in the process of being implemented. None of the FTAs have been fully implemented

yet, but the implementation of the FTAs may have affected Irish trade in the years following their

respective applications.

Irish exports of goods and services to the FTA partners have increased since the start of their re-

spective implementations, cf. Figure 2. Exports to South Korea already started to increase after the

provisional application of the South Korea FTA in 2011. Since the initial implementation of the

South Korea FTA, Irish services exports have almost tripled from EUR 655 million in 2014 to EUR

1.8 billion in 2019 (22.8 percent increase p.a.). Goods exports have also increased but peaked in

2016.

A similar trend is seen for Canada after the provisional application of CETA in 2017. Irish exports

have increased for both goods and services: Goods increased from EUR 953 million in 2016 to more

than EUR 1.7 billion in 2020 (15.8 per cent increase p.a.), mainly due to increased exports of chemi-

cals.

Services exports grew from EUR 1.6 billion in 2016 to more than EUR 2.3 billion in 2019 (13.6

per cent increase p.a.).

For Irish exports of goods and services to Japan and Mexico, there appears to be an increase in

trade after respective implementations, especially for services exports to Mexico that grew from

EUR 688 million in 2017 to almost EUR 1.6 billion in 2019 (50.6 per cent increase p.a.).

These export developments indicate that the impacts of the FTAs are starting to show, but Irish

goods and services exports to the FTA partners were also increasing before the FTAs. However, a

proportion of increased exports are due to the implementation of the FTAs, see for example the re-

sults for South Korea in Figure 11 which estimates that Irish exports to South Korea was 31 per cent

higher in 2015 than would have been the case without the FTA in place.

Based on data from Eurostat.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 2 Irish exports to South Korea, Canada, Japan, and Mexico, 2010-2019

EUR billion, 2019 prices

Note: Includes goods and services. Services exports are not available for 2020. There is a small difference in the

2016 numbers from the previous report since the numbers are measured in 2019-prices. The Canada FTA

(CETA) was provisionally applied in 2017. The EU-Mexico FTA, was agreed in principle in April 2018 and the

EU-Japan FTA was agreed in 2017 and entered into force on 1 February 2019.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from CSO.

308

313

364

327

473

527

947

644

596

532

658

223

330

672

561

655

658

805

924

20162010 2011 2012 2013 201720152014

1,811

2018

1,831

2019

2020

531

643

1,036

1,567

888

1,127

1,185

1,752

2,407

2,363

Goods Services

FTA in place

South Korea

596

651

799

785

733

907

953

631

1,108

2012

1,966

1,053

1,851

2010

1,201

1,137

2011

1,620

2014 2015

1,596

2016

1,106

2017

1,933

2,017

2018

1,227

1,540

2,339

2019

1,715

2013

2020

1,788

1,893

2,527

2,549

3,072

3,380

3,879

1,363

FTA in place

Canada

7,268

2,365

2015

1,592

1,864

3,308

2012

1,532

20182010

2,754

1,811

2011

3,395

2,131

4,233

2,542

2,824

1,721

2,512

2013

1,797

2014

3,960

2,939

4,878

2016

5,876

2017

3,355

6,467

8,185

3,403

2,794

2020

4,672

2019

4,551

7,817

9,822

11,009

8,240

FTA in place

Japan

531

569

695

704

234

376

584

689

688

3,097

2010 2011 2012 2013

910

1,234

2014

1,419

2015

1,382

2016 20202017

1,447

1,429

937

2018

1,536

2019

1,561

2,020

178

709

1,610

735

2,004

2,072

2,136

2,724

166

216

1,295

Update of FTA

agreed in principle

Mexico

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

In recent years, Irish exports have in general grown, cf. Figure 3. In the past 5 years during which

the FTAs started to be implemented at various stages, Irish exports to Canada, Japan and Mexico

have grown faster than exports to the rest of the world at around 17.5 per cent per year on average

compared to 14.0 percent to the rest of the world. Exports to South Korea grew 19 per cent per year

since 2015 and 22.8 per cent per year since 2017. The FTA with South Korea has already contrib-

uted to export growth (see Figure 11) and further opportunities are expected under the FTAs going

forward. Although still at an early stage of application, there are indications that a similar develop-

ment is arising with exports to Canada, with Irish exports increasing by 15 per cent per year since

2016. There are also early indications of export growth in in the case for the Japan FTA and the up-

dated Mexico FTA, for example goods and services exports to Mexico have increased 20 per cent per

year since 2017. Overall, export are expected to increase more going forward when the FTAs are

fully implemented and the full benefits for exporters and consumers are utilised in the long-run (see

Chapters 2 and 3 for further details).

Figure 3

Irish exports of goods and services since 2010

Index, 2010 = 100

Note: The index is based on exports in 2019 prices. The percantages show the compound annual growth rate

(CAGR). The cutoff is set before the implementation of the first FTA in 2015.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from the CSO.

Since 2014, imports from the FTA partners have also increased, although at a lower rate, cf. Figure

4. Imports have increased from EUR 0.6 billion in 2014 to EUR 1.1 billion in 2019 for both South

Korea and Canada, whereas imports from Japan and Mexico have remained relatively stable. Simi-

larly to the exports, there are also indications of increasing Irish imports, mainly from South Korea

and Canada after the implementations of the respective FTAs.

100

200

300

400

20142010 2011 20182012 2013 201720162015 2019

Four FTA countries

2014-2019: 17.5%

Rest of world

2014-2019: 14.0%

Four FTA countries

2010-2014: 12.0%

Rest of world

2010-2014: 1.4%

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 4

Irish imports from Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, 2010-2019

EUR billion, 2019 prices

Note: Includes goods and services. There is a small difference in the 2016 numbers from the previous report since

the numbers are measured in 2019-prices.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from CSO.

0.9

5.4

2.8

1.5

0.3

1.9

1.5

0.4

2.9

0.6

1.0

0.3

0.4

2011

0.3

2010

5.5

1.1

1.6

0.7

0.3

3.4

0.4

2012

0.6

2.9

20152013

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.5

2.8

0.6

0.7

0.6

2014

0.6

0.5

1.0

2.6

0.8

1.0

2016

2.5

1.0

1.1

0.5

2017

2.9

2018

0.5

1.1

2019

3.03.0

4.3

4.8

4.9

5.1

CanadaJapan South KoreaMexico

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

ACRONYMS AND DEFINITIONS

CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

CGE Computable General Equilibrium (see Appendix B)

CSO Central Statistics Office in Ireland

DETE Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment

EEA European Economic Area: The EEA comprises the 28 EU member states, as well as

three of the four member states of the EFTA (Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway).

Membership provides for the free movement of persons, goods, services and capital

within the European Single Market

EU European Union

FDI Foreign Direct Investment (investments with a foreign ownership above 10 per

cent)

FTA Free Trade Agreement: An FTA is an agreement between two or more countries that

establishes the free exchange of goods and services among parties. Each party to an

FTA retains its own independent trade regime with respect to non-members (unlike

the case of a customs union). FTAs are subject to the disciplines and oversight of

the WTO

GDP Gross Domestic Product: The market value of all goods and services produced in a

country in a year

GI Geographical indication (a name or sign used on products which corresponds to a

specific geographical location or origin)

GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project database: Global data base describing bilateral trade

patterns, production, consumption and intermediate use of commodities and ser-

vices

ICT Information and Communication Technology

MFN Most Favoured Nation: MFN is the cornerstone of non-discrimination among WTO

members. Any favourable treatment provided by a WTO member to any other

country must immediately and unconditionally be provided to all other WTO mem-

bers

M&As Merger & Acquisition (foreign takeover of a local firm)

NTB Non-Tariff Barrier (import quotas, subsidies, customs delays, technical barriers or

other obstacles to trade besides tariffs)

R&D Research & Development

SME Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (10-250 employees)

Tariff A duty levied on goods entering a new customs area – sometimes referred to as a

customs duty

TRQ Tariff Rate Quota: A quota within which imports enter a market with a tariff ad-

vantage. A TRQ is a volume of imports whose tariff is lower than the tariff charged

for imports above the quota

UK United Kingdom

WTO World Trade Organisation: The WTO is the international organisation dealing with

the rules of trade between nations. Its goal is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly,

predictably and freely as possible

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

In this chapter, we provide the background to the study, its purpose and the scope of the impact as-

sessment. We conclude by introducing the approach and method we use in the study.

1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY

EU trade agreements broaden market opportunities for EU exporters and give EU firms and con-

sumers access to a wider range of products at lower prices. OECD (2018) finds that lower trade bar-

riers are particularly beneficial for smaller economies, because “firms in these economies can better

specialise in international production networks as they have access to larger and more differenti-

ated markets and also benefit from enhanced market access on the products they already produce.”

The purpose of this study is to quantify the cumulative impact of EU FTAs on the Irish economy.

The FTAs include the 1) EU-South Korea agreement, which is already in force and close to fully im-

plemented, and 2) the EU-Canada, EU-Japan, and EU-Mexico agreements, which are concluded

and are in the process of being implemented,

cf. Figure 5.

The EU-Canada FTA (CETA) has been provisionally applied since September 2017. The majority of

the provisions in the agreement are therefore in force now, with the exception of a few provisions

mainly related to investment.

The EU-Japan FTA (EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement)

entered into force in Februrary 2019 and tarrif reductions on sensitive products are subject to a

phasing period of up to seven years.

The EU and Mexico reached an agreement in principle on

the trade part of a modernised EU-Mexico Global Agreement in April 2018. The new EU-Mexico

FTA is in the process of being implemented and will replace a previous agreement between the EU

and Mexico from 2000. While the three trade agreements have in principle been concluded, their

impacts on Irish trade and GDP largely remain to be seen.

The EU-Canada FTA provisionally entered into force on the 21 September 2017. Most of the agreement now ap-

plies, with the exception of some provisions mainly related to investment (European Parliament website, 2018).

The EU-Japan agreement entered into force on 1st February 2019 (European Commission website, 2019) with tar-

iffs reductions for sensitive products phased in over 7 years, and the EU-Mexico agreement has not yet entered

into force. The EU-Mexico agreement will replace an existing, but less deep, trade agreement between the EU

and Mexico from 2000 (European Commission, DG Trade’s website).

European Parliament (2018).

European Commission (2019).

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 5

Overview of the four EU FTAs analysed in the study

Source: Copenhagen Economics

We quantify the expected combined impact of the four FTAs on:

• Irish trade with each of four FTA partners

• Irish global trade

• GDP and national income

• Real wages across skill groups

• Production and employment across sectors in the Irish economy

Based on the analysis, we identify key sectors that could be significantly impacted both positively

and negatively by the FTAs. We then provide recommendations on domestic policies required to

maximise gains and mitigate the challenges that can arise from the respective trade agreements.

As none of the FTAs have yet been fully implemented, we quantify impacts for 2030 when all FTAs

are expected to be in force and fully implemented. In the case of the EU-South Korea FTA, which

entered into force in 2011, we further assess impacts of the agreement since its introduction. In

practice, the full benefits of the trade agreements only accrue if the agreements are fully imple-

mented and if companies actually pursue the opportunities created. The European Commission

(2017i) highlights that there is a need to increase awareness and transparency on how the Commis-

sion implements free trade agreements. In the policy recommendations, we therefore also empha-

sise the need to raise awareness and understanding of the FTAs within Ireland and the role Irish

policy makers can play in the implementation of EU FTAs.

The OECD (2018) also highlights that “while trade integration boosts demand and lifts wages and

factor returns, the required production adjustments also leads to reallocation of workers between

sectors.” Therefore, the policy recommendations highlight some of the distributional implications of

the four FTAs and discuss the need for labour force adjustment policies in Ireland to accompany

these new trade openings.

1.2 APPROACH AND METHOD

To assess the combined impact of the four FTAs on the Irish economy, we utilise a Computable

General Equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade (see below). The model has been employed in sev-

eral impact assessments of prospective FTAs by the European Commission. Examples include an

Concluded agreements close

to fully implemented

Negotiations concluded

Agreement yet to be

implemented

Provisionally applied

EU-South Korea

EU-Mexico (agreed in

principle)

EU-Japan

EU-Canada

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

assessment of the impact of a potential EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

(TTIP) and of Brexit on the Irish economy undertaken by Copenhagen Economics.

A key input to the model is the expected reduction in trade costs between the EU and each partner

country. This includes both tariffs and so-called non-tariff barriers (e.g. regulatory barriers to

trade). With respect to tariffs, we use the actual tariff reductions agreed upon for the EU-South Ko-

rea FTA and for all concluded agreements.

The expected reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) is more difficult to quantify due to their intrin-

sic nature. Trade costs from NTBs arise due to regulatory differences between markets that give rise

to additional costs for exporters faced with, for example, different product standards or labelling

requirements than on their home market, additional certification and compliance procedures, and

so on. The extent to which a given FTA can reduce the costs of NTBs (e.g. by reducing regulatory di-

vergence) is not as easily measurable, in contrast to tariffs, which are generally removed entirely on

most products under an FTA. In order to avoid having to make subjective assumptions about the

extent to which such barriers can be reduced under each of the FTAs, we instead rely on economet-

ric modelling. By doing so, we can quantify the average magnitude of the NTB reductions obtained

in the past under similarly ambitious FTAs across the world, and therefore assume that reductions

of a similar size can be reached through new EU FTAs.

In addition to the quantitative modelling of impacts, stakeholder involvement is a key part of the

study. We met with numerous Government departments, agencies and business organisations (see

Appendix A) to discuss the likely benefits and challenges from the various agreements on Irish busi-

nesses and possible domestic policy responses required. Inputs from these stakeholder meetings are

invaluable opportunities from which to develop policy recommendations.

Finally, we also undertook a survey of Irish businesses on the impacts of the EU-South Korea FTA

since its entry into force. The survey was sent out to Irish businesses across a range of sectors. In

total 60 businesses responded to the survey and of these just over half trade with South Korea. We

use insights from the survey to qualify and verify the conclusions from the quantitative assessment

of the impacts of the agreement.

1.2.1 The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model used

We apply a CGE model to analyse both the expected cumulative impact of all four FTAs, as well as

the the impacts of the EU-South Korea FTA on Irish trade with South Korea since its entry into

force. For all FTAs, we analyse impacts of a decrease in trade costs related to tariffs, regulatory bar-

riers to trade in goods, and barriers to trade in services. The model is a global CGE model, where

production and demand are linked across all countries and between sectors, cf. Box 1.

Thus, the

study focuses on impacts on Ireland but takes underlying impacts on other Member States into con-

sideration. Impacts on Ireland can, however, not be directly transferred to other Member States as

the impacts will depend on existing production structures and trade patterns.

Copenhagen Economics (2015) and Copenhagen Economics (2018).

See the Appendix B for an overview of the methodology used to assess NTB cost reductions.

See Bekkers and Francois (2015) and Bekkers et al. (2017).

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Box 1 Non-technical description of the applied CGE model

In the CGE model used, the entire Irish economy is classified into production and consumption

sections that are interlinked through local value chains. The Irish economy is also interlinked

with other countries through global value chains. By taking all global trade flows into consider-

ation, our CGE model captures the main channels through which EU FTAs may impact the Irish

economy (illustrated by the EU-Canada FTA):

Ireland’s bilateral trade with Canada increases as trade

barriers are reduced.

EU firms that export to Canada may demand more input

from Irish producers (increases exports to the EU), and Irish

firms that export to Canada may demand more input

from EU producers (increases imports from the EU). In-

creased Canadian exports to the EU may also compete

with Irish exports to the EU (lower Irish exports to the EU).

Lower trade barriers make Canada more attractive rela-

tive to other trading partners, though Irish exports may be

redirected from other destinations to Canada (at a

higher price). Irish imports from Canada may replace im-

ports from other countries (at a lower price).

Lower costs of imported input from Canada and econo-

mies of scale make Irish producers more competitive in

their global markets (increases global exports), and con-

sumers benefit from lower prices on imports. Higher in-

come due to the FTA increases demand in Ireland

(higher imports) and other Member States (higher exports

to the EU).

The size of the trade barrier reduction and the responsiveness to changes in trade costs vary

across sectors, and the FTAs will change the relative competitiveness and productivity of sec-

tors within the Irish economy. In the short term, higher competitiveness and productivity in-

crease wages. Over time, resources will tend to flow towards the sectors with the highest return,

and employment will increase in highly-productive sectors at the expense of labour in less pro-

ductive sectors. The same will happen with capital and other production factors.

Source: See Appendix B for more details on the applied CGE model

The model includes specificities for the Irish economy. This is, for example, reflected in the sector

classifications used, where key Irish agricultural sectors, such as beef and dairy, are treated as sepa-

rate sectors, cf. Figure 6. In total, the Irish economy is classified into 24 sectors. The sector classifi-

cation is the same as in the impact assessments of Brexit in Copenhagen Economics (2017) and the

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Treaty (TTIP) in Copenhagen Economics (2015), which makes

it possible to make direct comparisons of the impacts.

Direct impacts

Exports of goods and services

Imports of goods and services

Indirect impacts

Changing t rade patterns

wit h the rest of the EU

Trade diversion

Redirection of trade towards

t rading partner

General equilibrium

effects

Changing t rade patterns

wit h the rest of the world

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 6

Sector composition used in the study

Source: Copenhagen Economics

Below, we explain how the model is used to assess both the expected cumulative impact of all four

FTAs, as well as the impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on Irish trade with South Korea.

The expected cumulative impact of all four FTAs

The impacts arising from the four FTAs are modelled as the cumulative impacts that arise when all

four FTAs are in force simultaneously. This means that Irish exporters face new business opportuni-

ties in four markets at the same time and that they will therefore, all other things being equal, de-

cide to export to the market that offers the highest return relative to other markets. As such, Irish

exports will increase more to some markets (e.g. where the FTA offers large trade cost reductions

relative to competitors and where demand is increasing) than to others (e.g. where NTBs remain

high or markets are too small to deliver economies of scale). Irish exports to some markets may

even fall for some products if other markets become much more attractive. Likewise, Irish import-

ers will look for the best combination of price and quality, and so they will increase imports from

partner countries where the FTA offers the largest reduction in trade costs relative to other import

opportunities.

Exporters and importers throughout the EU will optimise their trade in a similar way, and the cu-

mulative impacts therefore add up all changes in Irish, EU and global value chains once trade pat-

terns have been optimised by all actors. This also implies that the cumulative impact will differ from

the impacts that would accrue if we modelled all four FTAs individually and added up the impacts

afterwards. This is not the reality facing Irish firms, and we therefore believe that the cumulative

impacts give a more precise estimation of the long-term impacts on the Irish economy. In practice,

the cumulative impacts are quantified first and decomposed into impacts from the individual agree-

ments. This is shown in the top right-hand corner of Figure 7, where we illustrate how to read the

charts throughout this report.

The cumulative impacts of the four FTAs on the Irish economy should be interpreted relative to a

baseline scenario for the Irish economy, which reflects the expected development in Irish GDP (and

other key economic parameters in the CGE model) from 2015 towards 2030. Within this time pe-

riod, the impacts of Brexit should also be taken into consideration when assessing the Irish econ-

omy in 2030. The anticipated interaction between FTAs and Brexit impacts have been provided for

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

the Department in separate modelling, therefore, for clarity in this report the modelling only fo-

cuses on the four selected FTAs in order to show their specific impacts.

We therefore design the

baseline for the Irish economy without the four FTAs and without Brexit, and assess the impacts of

the FTAs against this baseline, as illustrated in the bottom left-hand corner of Figure 7.

Figure 7

How to read the charts (illustrative figure)

Note: The waves indicate that there is a cut off in the scale because the absolute impact of the four FTAs is small

relative to total Irish GDP and would be difficult to read off the chart.

Source: Copenhagen Economics

The cumulative impact of the four FTAs is disaggregated across the individual FTAs. This means

that we obtain the contribution from each FTA on the level of Irish GDP etc. conditional on all FTAs

being implemented and fully effective by 2030, cf. Figure 7. It is, however, important to note that

the impacts of the EU-Mexico and the EU-South Korea FTA in 2030 do not reflect the full impact of

these FTAs. In the case of the EU-South Korea FTA, only the impact of trade cost reductions occur-

ring after 2015 is included, i.e. the impacts of the trade cost reduction prior to 2015 are already ac-

counted for in Ireland’s GDP in 2015. Similarly, in the case of the EU-Mexico FTA, which is a mod-

ernisation of an existing FTA between the EU and Mexico, only the impact of the additional trade

cost reductions induced by the new FTA is included, i.e. the impacts of the trade cost reduction in

the FTA are, again, already accounted for in Ireland’s GDP in 2015.

Impacts of the EU-South Korea FTA

The same type of interpretation also applies when we assess the impacts to date of the EU-South

Korea FTA on bilateral trade between Ireland and South Korea. To do so we use data from 2015 and

estimate the increase in the level of Irish exports and imports to and from South Korea in 2015, rel-

Copenhagen Economics (2019).

Irish GDP in 2030 with

and without the FTAs

Cumulative impact of FTAs

2015 2030

without

FTAs

2030

with

FTAs

EU-South Korea EU-JapanEU-Mexico EU-Canada Cumulative impact

of the four FTAs

Impacts on Irish GDP from

the respective FTAs, not

already realised in 2015

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

ative to a hypothetical situation where no agreement is in place. We then use information on the ac-

tual tariffs cuts that have occurred over the period 2011-2015 and the achieved reductions in NTB

costs, which we obtain from an econometric model.

See Appendix B for details on the NTB estimations.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

CHAPTER 2

THE IMPACT OF THE EU-SOUTH KOREA FTA

ON IRELAND’S TRADE WITH SOUTH KOREA

In this chapter, we describe the development in Irish exports and imports of goods and services to

and from South Korea and quantify the impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on Irish trade with

South Korea. As the EU-South Korea FTA has been in force since 2011, we can assess the impacts of

the agreement already attained. We do so by using the latest available data, from 2015. However, as

the agreement is not yet fully phased in, we also quantify the expected long-term impacts of the

agreement on Irish trade with South Korea in 2030. Finally, we provide a descriptive analysis of the

development in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) between Ireland and South Korea.

2.1 IRELAND’S TRADE WITH SOUTH KOREA

Ireland exported close to EUR 2.4 billion worth of goods and services to South Korea in 2019,

equivalent to 0.6 per cent of total exports, cf. Figure 8.

Goods exports to South Korea amounted to

EUR 530 million in 2019 after a decline from 2016. The main export products are electrical machin-

ery and chemicals & pharmaceuticals. Services exports to South Korea amounted to EUR 1.8 billion

and the main exported services are business and ICT services. Furthermore, significant export value

is generated in the Irish wholesale and retail sector (including e.g. e-commerce sales).

Based on 2019 data from the CSO.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 8

Irish exports to South Korea, 2005-2019

EUR million, 2019 prices

Note: Percentages in grey bubbles show the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) within the period indi-

cated.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from CSO

Prior to the implementation of the FTA in 2011, Irish exports to South Korea were on a downward

trend, with an average annual growth rate of -12 per cent over the period 2005-2010. This negative

trend was reversed just prior to the implementation of the agreement, and Irish exports to South

Korea grew by an annual average growth rate of just over 16 per cent in the period 2011-2015. This

was then followed by a steep increase between 2015 to 2016, and from 2017 to 2018.

Ireland imported close to EUR 1.1 billion worth of goods and services from South Korea in 2019,

equivalent to 0.3 per cent of total imports.

Around 87 per cent of the total imports from South Ko-

rea are goods, particularly, chemicals, transport equipment, and motor vehicles. The development

in imports from South Korea follows the same pattern as exports with a downward trend until just

prior to the implementation of the agreement but with a more modest increase after the agreement

entered into force, cf. Figure 9.

Based on 2019 data from the CSO.

0.2%

1,000

500

1,500

0.0%

2,500

2,000

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

201020082005 2006 2007 2009 20172011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019

EU- South Korea

FTA in force

-12.0% +16.5% +18.9%

Share of total exports (right axis)GoodsServices

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 9

Irish imports from South Korea, 2005-2019

EUR million, 2019 prices

Note: Percentages in grey bubbles indicate the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) within the periods indi-

cated.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from CSO

The development in trade between Ireland and South Korea could be driven by the EU-South Korea

FTA, but a range of other factors besides the FTA also influence bilateral trade, e.g. increased de-

mand in South Korea that increases imports. We therefore analyse below the isolated impact of the

FTA on trade with South Korea.

2.2 OVERVIEW OF THE EU–SOUTH KOREA FTA

At the time of implementation, the EU-South Korea FTA was the most ambitious trade agreement

ever negotiated by the EU and also the EU’s only trade deal with an Asian country. The FTA was un-

precedented both in terms of the scope as well as the speed with which trade barriers were re-

moved.

The agreement eliminates duties on almost all products, except for a small share of agri-food prod-

ucts, such as rice, of which the EU has very few exports from South Korea.

For the majority of

products, tariffs were removed immediately when the agreement came into force, and all tariffs on

industrial products were removed within five years of the FTA. Tariff cuts on sensitive agricultural

products are being phased in over a period of up to 18 years, cf. Figure 10.

European Commission (2011).

In the FTA negotiations, the two partner often agree to designate a set of self-selected tariff lines as ‘sensitive.

Tariff on EU exports of ginger and sesame oil to South Korea are removed over 18 equal annual stages, starting in

2011. For other sensitive agricultural products, (e.g. beef) tariff cuts are phased in over a shorter period (Euro-

pean Union, 2011, Annex 2-a).

800

1,600

200

1,400

400

600

1,000

1,200

1,800

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

1.0%

0.6%

0.8%

2010200920072005 2006 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EU- South Korea

FTA in force

-14.7% +9.9% +14.5%

Services Goods Share of total imports (right axis)

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 10

Key elements and timeline of the EU-South Korea FTA

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on DG Trade (http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-re-

gions/countries/south-korea/), European Commission (2011) and Copenhagen Economics (2016)

The agreement also targets regulatory barriers to trade and makes it easier for EU exporters of

goods such as motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, medical devices, and electronics to ex-

port their goods to South Korea. For consumer electronics, South Korea will, for example, recognise

many European standards and certificates. The latter means that EU exporters of consumer elec-

tronics avoid having to undertake duplicative and expensive testing and certification procedures in

South Korea in order to sell their products there. The agreement also contains provisions to prevent

the emergence of new non-tariff barriers in these sectors.

With respect to services, the agreement is ambitious and provides legal certainty that EU services

suppliers and investors will not be discriminated against compared to their South Korean competi-

tors. Furthermore, the agreement opens the South Korean services market for EU suppliers in a

range of sectors including: Telecommunications, transport, construction, financial, postal and ex-

press delivery, professional services, and a large variety of other business services.

However, despite the ambitious agreement, trade barriers still exist. This includes the issue of mar-

ket access for meat products. Currently, Ireland does not have blanket access to the South Korean

market for beef and sheep meat, which means that these products cannot currently be exported

from Ireland to South Korea. To obtain market access for these products, South Korea must first

recognise the Irish system for food safety standards for these products, after which individual plants

can apply for clearance to export.

European Commission (2011).

See Irish Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (2020), page 26 and 56

2007 2009 2011

2015

The agreement

was provisionally

applied

Agreement

reached

The agreement was

formally ratified

The agreement is

expected to be fully

phased in

Key elements of the agreement

All tariffs on industrial goods were fully removed within the first five years of the FTA.

The agreement eliminates tariffs for almost all EU exports of agri-food products to South Korea. For sensitive

products there is phasing in periods of up to 18 years, e.g. beef (5-15 years), mushrooms (10 years), certain fish

and shellfish (up to 10 years).

Regulatory barriers are reduced. Specific commitments have been made on consumer electronics, motor

vehicles, pharmaceutical products/medical devices and chemicals.

Far reaching liberalisation of trade in services. The agreement was the most ambitious serv ices FTA ever

concluded by the EU, at the time of implementation.

Negotiations

began

2029

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

2.3 REALISED IMPACTS OF THE FTA ON IRELAND-SOUTH

KOREA TRADE

Based on our CGE model

, we assess the impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on Irish trade with

South Korea. We find that Irish exports to South Korea was 31 per cent higher in 2015 than would

have been the case without the FTA in place, cf. Figure 11. This means that a total of EUR 273 mil-

lion worth of Irish exports to South Korea in 2015 can be attributed to the FTA. This also means

that Irish exports to South Korea would only have grown by EUR 258 million over the period 2011

to 2015 in the absence of the FTA (an increase of 41 per cent). The sectors in Ireland that have seen

the largest relative increase in exports to South Korea was primary production (e.g. agricultural

products), dairy and processed foods.

Figure 11

Impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on Irish exports to South Korea

EUR million, 2015 prices

Note: The figure shows Irish exports of goods and services to South Korea in 2011 and 2015, with the share of ex-

ports in 2015 that is due to the FTA. There is a small difference in the export numbers relative to previous

figures as the numbers in this figure is in 2015-prices.

Source: Copenhagen Economics in cooperation with J. Francois. Data on Irish exports of goods and services is

from the CSO

The agreement has also had a positive impact on Irish imports from South Korea. We find that im-

ports are 14 per cent higher in 2015 than they would have been in the absence of the agreement, cf.

Figure 12.

See Appendix B for details on the methodology.

632

258

273

2011 (before FTA)

2015 (without FTA)

2015 (with FTA)

890

1,163

+41%

31%

Increased exports due to the FTA

Increased exports not due to the FTA

Exports before the FTA

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 12

Impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on Irish imports from South Korea

EUR million, 2015 prices

Note: The figure shows Irish imports of goods and services from South Korea in 2011 and 2015, with the share of

exports in 2015 that is due to the FTA.

Source: Copenhagen Economics in cooperation with J. Francois. Data on Irish imports of goods and services is

from the CSO

The main driver of the impact of the FTA on Irish exports to South Korea has been the reduction of

tariffs, which accounts for over three quarters of the 31 per cent increase in exports in 2015, cf. Fig-

ure 13. In contrast, reductions in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) for goods and general barriers for ser-

vices have so far had a much smaller impact on Irish exports to South Korea. One explanation may

be that NTBs are removed at a slower rate than tariff barriers as NTBs require far more regulatory

cooperation between partners to achieve lasting effects (which is a key focus of FTA negotiations). It

is therefore likely that NTBs will be of greater importance in the future if Irish firms begin to trade

more with South Korea.

Contrary to exports, the main driver of increased imports seems, however, to have been the reduc-

tion in NTBs for goods, cf. Figure 13.

The EU-South Korea FTA has specific annexes that tackle dif-

fering standards relating to automotive, electronics and pharmaceuticals, and these products ac-

count for more than 70 per cent of Irish goods imports from South Korea.

The results are very similar to the equivalent impacts found in the European Commission’s assessment of the

agreement. They find that Irish exports to South Korea are 34 per cent higher in 2015 due to the agreement, while

Irish imports from South Korea are 16 per cent higher in the same year due to the agreement (see Civic Consult-

ing, 2017).

See European Commission (2010).

431

123

2015 (with FTA)2011 (before FTA) 2015 (without FTA)

629

554

+28%

14%

Increased exports due to the FTA

imports before the FTA

Increased imports not due to the FTA

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 13

Impact of the EU–South Korea FTA on bilateral trade by source of gain

% change in the value of Irish exports and imports relative to a no agreement scenario in 2015

Note: The figures show the total change in exports and imports broken down by trade policy instruments. The

base year is 2015.

Source: Copenhagen Economics in cooperation with J. Francois

The positive impacts of the FTA on Irish exports to South Korea are also echoed in the responses to

the survey we conducted on the impact of the agreement among Irish businesses. In total, nine re-

spondents, out of 48, have indicated that the agreement has had a positive impact on their exports

to South Korea, while eight respondents find that the agreement has had a positive impact on the

profitability of their company.

This is not surprising as it emerged several times during our en-

gagement with stakeholders that South Korea is a high-value market. These insights illustrate the

important role of FTAs, especially in light of Brexit. Better access to more markets gives exporters

better opportunity to target the markets that are most profitable to them.

None of the respondents to the survey indicated that the agreement has had any impact on the level

of their imports from South Korea, but six respondents did indicate that the FTA has led to a more

level playing field between Irish and South Korean producers. While the sample size is relatively

small, the survey provides some interesting qualitative insights from companies.

2.4 LONG-RUN IMPACTS ON IRELAND-SOUTH KOREA

TRADE

While the agreement has been in place since 2011, several tariff cuts on sensitive agricultural prod-

ucts are still being phased in. We therefore assess the full impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on

Irish trade with South Korea in 2030. As the other three FTAs with Canada, Japan and Mexico are

also assumed to be fully implemented by 2030, we assess the impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on

Irish trade with South Korea (in 2030) in a scenario where the three other FTAs are also in place.

Based on the available data, it has not been possible to assess to which extent the FTA has helped existing ex-

porters increase their exports to South Korea or enabled new exporters to enter the market.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

The results show that there are significant potential gains still to be reaped from the agreement. In

2030, Irish exports to South Korea are expected to be 35 per cent higher than in the absence of the

FTA, while imports are expected to be 45 per cent higher, cf. Figure 14. The full impact includes the

impact of trade costs reduced between 2011-2015, in Figure 9, as well as trade cost reductions tak-

ing place between 2015-2030.

Figure 14

Impact of the four FTAs on Irish trade with South Korea

% change in the value of Irish exports and imports relative to a no agreement scenario in 2030

Note: The figure shows the expected full impact of EU-South Korea FTA on Irish trade with South Korea in 2030, in

a scenario where the other three FTAs are also in place.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

The survey we conducted also indicates that there is still a potential for reaping further benefits

from the EU-South Korea FTA, but that there is a need to increase the awareness of the FTA among

Irish businesses. Close to half of the 32 respondents who trade with South Korea indicated that they

were not aware of the agreement. The lack of awareness is also a point that emerged on several oc-

casions during our stakeholder meetings. Lack of awareness could indicate that the FTA is not being

utilised to its full potential, which points to policy implications around promotion of FTAs.

2.5 FDI BETWEEN IRELAND AND SOUTH KOREA

Foreign direct investment (FDI) between Ireland and South Korea is relatively rare. In 2018, the

stock of South Korean FDI in Ireland amounted to EUR 570 million, equivalent to 0.06 per cent of

the total stock of FDI in Ireland.

Over the period 2003-2016, 11 out of a total of 15 South Korean investments into Ireland occurred

via greenfield investments, which occur when a foreign company starts a new facility abroad rather

than acquiring an existing company. The remaining four took place via mergers and acquisitions

(M&As), which occur when a foreign company purchases at least 10 per cent of the voting stock in a

domestic company. This picture is in sharp contrast to Irish investments into South Korea, where 17

of 18 FDI projects undertaken over the same period were M&As.

Based on data from Eurostat.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Over time, there has been little development in South Korean investments into Ireland, whether

measured in terms of the number of projects or in terms of the average value of the projects, cf. Fig-

ure 15. Over the period 2011-2016, Ireland only received one FDI project from South Korea with an

estimated value of EUR 333 million.

In the years 2017-2018, Ireland received three FDI projects

from South Korean firms.

There are no clear indications that the EU-South Korea FTA has led to

more investments from South Korea into Ireland – though investments may grow over time. While

FTAs may help to open up markets, investment promotion activity still requires strategic targeting

of the market, often requiring a physical presence in that market, and it also takes time to develop

client relationships as well as tailor marketing and promotion activity to the specific market.

Figure 15

Number of FDI projects between Ireland and South Korea, 2003-2016

Number

Note: The figure shows the number of South Korean FDI projects in Ireland and vice versa over the period 2003-

2016.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on Copenhagen Economics’ FDI database

The picture is similar for Irish investments into South Korea. While the number of Irish FDI pro-

jects undertaken in South Korea spiked in 2013, the level is still very low, and the data does not in-

dicate any change in the trend of the number of projects from Ireland to South Korea following the

EU-South Korea FTA. The average value of Irish projects in South Korea peaked in both 2013 and

2016. In both cases, this is due to one major M&A investment.

The investment was undertaken by Doosan Infracore Company Ltd.’s, which increased its ownership share of

Doosan Holdings Europe from 57 per cent to 78 per cent in 2012.

The investments in 2017 and 2018 are based on investment data from Orbis Crossborder. Between 2016 and 2017

there is a change in the sources behind these investments, which is why the figure is not updated till 2018.

In 2013, Seagate Technology Plc acquired Samsung Electronic’s HDD Division with a purchase value of EUR 1 bil-

lion. In 2016, the share majority (60 per cent) of Carver Korea Company Ltd was acquired by Bain Capital LLC

with a value of EUR 347 million in an institutional buyout.

201520082004 201420062003 20072005 2009 2010 2011 20162012 2013

Irish investments in South Korea South Korean investments in Ireland

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 16

Average value of FDI projects between Ireland and South Korea, 2003-2016

EUR million, 2015 prices

Note: The figure shows the average value of South Korean FDI projects in Ireland and vice versa over the period

2003-2016, measured in million EUR, 2015 prices. Hyundai Motors made 8 smaller investments in Ireland in

2003 placed in different cities.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on Copenhagen Economics’ FDI database

2.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS

While South Korea is still a relatively small export market for Irish goods and services, Irish exports

to South Korea are 31 per cent higher in 2015 than would have been the case without the FTA in

place. The impact is expected to increase further as the FTA becomes fully implemented. The same

is true for Irish imports of goods and services from South Korea. Imports from South Korea are 14

per cent higher than would have been the case without the FTA. Whereas the main driver of in-

creased exports seems to have been tariff reductions, whilst regulatory convergence (particularly in

automotive, electronics and pharmaceuticals) has been the main driver of increased imports from

South Korea. In 2030, Irish exports to South Korea are expected to be 35 per cent higher than in the

absence of the FTA, while imports are expected to be 45 per cent higher.

Half of surveyed businesses are not aware of the FTA. Raising the awareness of the FTA among

Irish businesses can further help to enhance the impact of the FTA on Irish trade with South Korea.

With respect to FDI, the number and value of South Korean investments in Ireland and vice versa

remains very limited and there is no visible indication of the FTA having had an impact on these

flows. Impacts on FDI are likely to take more time to materialise as investment promotion activities

are required to develop the market and build relationships with new clients. There may also be

higher cultural barriers than with other investment partners, for example, the US and Europe.

117

105

211

347

333

2003 20112009200820052004 2015201420132006 2007 2010 2012 2016

Irish investment s in South Korea South Korean investments in Ireland

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

CHAPTER 3

IMPACTS OF EU FTAS ON IRELAND’S TRADE

WITH CANADA, JAPAN AND MEXICO

In this chapter, we describe the recently concluded EU FTAs with Canada, Japan and Mexico. We

describe the development in Irish exports and imports of goods and services to and from Canada,

Japan and Mexico from 2003-2019. We use econometric modelling to quantify the expected im-

pacts of the FTAs on bilateral trade between Ireland and each of the three FTA partner countries in

2030.

3.1 IRELAND’S TRADE WITH CANADA, JAPAN AND

MEXICO

In 2019, Ireland exported goods and services for EUR 18 billion to Canada, Japan and Mexico,

while total imports from these countries reached EUR 4.2 billion. Japan is by far the largest export

and import market, with Irish exports to Japan alone reaching EUR 11 billion in 2019, compared to

EUR 3-4 billion for Canada and Mexico, cf. Figure 17.

When comparing the Irish exports relative to

the GDP in the three countries, the exports to Mexico are larger than for Japan and Canada. The

Irish export’s share of GDP in Japan and Canada is close to the same.

Figure 17

Irish trade with Canada, Japan and Mexico, 2019

EUR billion

Note: The figure shows Irish exports and imports of goods and services to and from Canada, Japan and Mexico

in 2019.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from CSO

Generally, we see a strong, positive long run growth trajectory in Irish exports to the three trading

partners regardless of the FTAs. The FTA markets have become increasingly important markets for

Ireland, and Irish exports of goods and services to Canada, Mexico and Japan have had a real in-

crease of 8.9 per cent per year since 2003. Irish exports to Canada grew by 5.6 per cent annually

over the period 2003 – 2010 on average, and 13.6 per cent annually over the period 2010-2019, cf.

Figure 18.

Exports of services account for just over 60 per cent of total Irish exports to Japan and Canada and 34 per cent

of total Irish exports to Mexico.

11.0

3.9

3.1

2.8

1.1

0.5

Japan Canada Mexico

Exports Imports

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Irish exports to Japan were on an upward trend for most of the period 2003-2019, with a slight dip

in 2007 and rapid growth since 2014. On average, the annual growth in Irish exports to Japan was

14.0 per cent over the period 2010-2019. Irish exports to Mexico fell by 0.3 per cent per year from

2003 – 2010, after which they increased by 17.8 per cent per year since 2010, with especially rapid

growth since 2013. The Irish exports to Mexico grew 9.4 per cent per year over the period 2003-

2019. Based on past developments, growth in the importance of these three markets for Irish ex-

ports thus seems likely to continue.

Figure 18

Irish exports of goods and services to Canada, Japan and Mexico, 2003-2019

Index, 2003 = 100

Note: The index is based on exports in 2019 prices. The gap in Irish exports to Mexico in 2005 is due to missing

data on Irish service exports to Mexico in that year. CAGR is the Compound Annual Growth Rate.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from the CSO

In terms of imports, the picture is somewhat different. Irish imports from Canada only grew by 2.0

per cent per year between 2003-2019, due to decreases in the period 2010-2014. Irish imports from

Japan increased by 7.5 per cent per year over the period 2010-2019, after a decrease of 10.9 per cent

per year between 2003-2010. Imports from Mexico however, grew steadily over most of the period,

with a total growth on average of 4.1 per cent annually since 2003, and 7.7 per cent per year since

2010, cf. Figure 19.

100

200

300

400

500

2004 200620052003 20122007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Canada

CAGR 2010-

2019: 13.6%

Mexico,

CAGR 2010-

2019: 17.8%

Japan

CAGR 2010-

2019: 14.0%

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 19

Irish imports of goods and services from Canada, Japan and Mexico, 2003-2019

Index, 2003 = 100

Note: The index is based on exports in 2019 prices.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on data from the CSO

3.2 EU FTAS WITH CANADA, JAPAN AND MEXICO

The EU FTAs with Canada, Japan and Mexico have all recently been concluded and are in varying

stages of application and implementation. All three agreements contain ambitious provisions for

the reduction in tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Tariffs on industrial goods and non-sensitive

agricultural products will be removed under all three agreements, and NTBs limiting both goods

and service trade will be reduced in line with realised NTB reductions achieved by existing deep and

comprehensive EU FTAs already in place.

For sensitive agricultural products, tariffs will, in general, be reduced under all three agreements,

and in some cases so-called tariff rate quotas (TRQs) will apply. A TRQ provides access for a limited

volume of imports, either duty-free or at a reduced in-quota tariff rate, while additional imports are

subject to the higher out—of-quota tariff rate. TRQs apply to several agricultural products, but of

particular importance to Ireland is the treatment of beef, sheep and cattle meat.

We therefore ex-

plicitly model TRQs for these products.

Below, we briefly comment on the main aspects of each agreement.

3.2.1 The EU-Canada FTA

The EU-Canada FTA contains one of the most comprehensive tariff reduction packages ever

achieved in an EU FTA.

Overall, tariffs will be removed on 98.6 per cent of all Canadian tariff lines

Based on information on the depths of existing FTAs across the world, we use a gravity model to estimate the av-

erage NTB cost reductions achieved by an average deep FTA already in place. We use this as an estimate of

expected NTB cost reductions for the con-cluded FTAs with Canada, Japan and Mexico. See Appendix B for

more details.

Agricultural products subject to TRQs vary across the FTAs. In the case of the EU-Canada FTA, this includes for ex-

ample: Dairy, beef, pork, sweetcorn and common wheat (European Commission, 2016a). In the case of the EU-

Japan FTA this includes for example fresh cheese such as Mozzarella, while for example skimmed milk powder

and mature and fresh cheeses are subject to TRQs in the EU-Mexico FTA.

Unless explicitly mentioned, this section draws on European Commission (2016a) detailing the provisions in the EU-

Canada FTA.

100

150

200

250

300

350

201520042003 20082005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20162014 2017 2018 2019

Canada

CAGR 2010-

2019: 1.5%

Mexico,

CAGR 2010-

2019: 7.7%

Japan

CAGR 2010-

2019: 7.5%

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

and 98.7 per cent of all EU tariff lines.

While almost all tariffs are removed immediately upon en-

try into force of the agreement, there is a phase-in period for a limited number of products where

tariffs will be eliminated over a period of up to seven years.

Agri-food

The agreement removed or reduced tariffs on almost all agricultural products, except for chicken

and turkey meat, eggs and egg products. Canada will eliminate tariffs for 91.7 per cent of agricul-

tural tariff lines, while the EU will eliminate 93.8 per cent of agricultural tariffs by 2024.

With respect to beef, the EU has granted Canada a duty-free TRQ of 45,840 tons (measured in car-

cass weight equivalent as provided for in Annex 2-A Tariff Elimination of CETA), of which 30,840

tons are fresh beef. In addition, the EU will reduce the in-quota tariff rate on the quota for high

quality beef (the so-called Hilton quota), which Canada shares with the US. On the other side, Can-

ada has granted the EU a new bilateral quota of 18,500 tonnes of cheese and eliminated all tariffs

on milk proteins.

The FTA also targets NTBs limiting trade in agri-food, particularly those concerning wines and spir-

its. The FTA, for example, abolishes the Canadian requirement to blend imported bulk spirits with

local spirits before bottling, which has been a requirement that has made it impossible for EU mak-

ers of products classified as Geographical Indications from labelling them as such.

We estimate

that the cost of non-tariff barriers in agri-food, will on average be reduced by 27 per cent in Canada

and by 28 per cent in the EU.

Industrial goods

All tariffs on industrial products will be removed by both sides by 2024, of which 99.6 per cent in

the case of Canada and 99.4 per cent in the case of the EU were eliminated when the FTA was provi-

sionally applied.

The FTA also contains ambitious provisions regarding the reduction of NTBs. An

example of this is the provision to improve the recognition of conformity assessment between the

EU and Canada, which will help avoid double testing of products in both the EU and in Canada. We

estimate that the cost of NTBs for industrial goods will on average be reduced by 8 per cent in Can-

ada and by 1 per cent in the EU.

Services

The agreement will also improve access for EU service providers to the Canadian market. Canada

has, for example, removed a number of citizenship and residency conditions, that will make it easier

for professionals from Ireland such as lawyers, accountants, architects and engineers to practice in

Canada.

In addition, the agreement also opens the Canadian market for EU service providers in

financial services, postal and courier services, telecommunications, and transport.

We estimate

A tariff line is the product level at which tariff rates are specified.

European Commission (2017h).

It should be noted that we do not take account of the Canadian supply management system.

The average NTB cost reductions on the Canadian market (EU market) are weighted by EU exports to Canada

(EU imports from Canada).

The average NTB cost reductions on the Canadian market (EU market), are weighted by EU exports to Canada

(EU imports from Canada).

European Commission (2017d).

European Commission (2017a).

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

that the cost of service barriers will on average be reduced by 10 per cent in Canada and by 4 per

cent in the EU.

3.2.2 The EU-Japan FTA

The EU-Japan FTA was agreed in 2017 and entered into force on 1 February 2019.

Agri-food

Japan will remove tariffs on 85 per cent of tariff lines in the agri-food sector. The remaining tariff

lines will be liberalised via tariff reductions or subject to TRQs. The Japanese tariff on import of

beef from the EU will, for example, be reduced from the current rate of 38.5 per cent to 9 per cent

with an initial cut bringing the tariff down to 27.5 per cent. Japan will, however, have a so-called

safeguard option of increasing tariffs again, if imports exceed a given amount, which increases over

time (43,500 metric tonnes in the first year).

This is designed to avoid sudden market disruption

while liberalising over time.

The agreement will also reduce the cost of NTBs in this sector, including sanitary and phytosanitary

measures to protect humans, animals, and plants from diseases, pests or contaminants. The FTA

will, for example, create a more predictable regulatory environment for EU agri-food products ex-

ported to Japan, and the EU and Japan have agreed to simplify approval and clearance processes to

ensure that import procedures can be completed without unnecessary delays. We estimate that the

cost of non-tariff barriers in agri-food will on average be reduced by 26 per cent in Japan and by 22

per cent in the EU.

Industrial goods

Under the agreement, all tariffs on industrial goods will be eliminated. The agreement also contains

a number of provisions to reduce the cost of non-tariff barriers for trade in goods. This includes the

use of international standards to the greatest possible extent. We estimate that the cost of non-tariff

barriers for manufactured goods will on average be reduced by 8 per cent in Japan and 7 per cent in

the EU.

Services

Barriers to service trade will also be reduced and make it easier for Irish service firms to sell their

services in Japan (especially business services, telecoms, and financial services among others).

estimate that the cost of service barriers will on average be reduced by 4 per cent in Japan and 3 per

cent in the EU.

The average reductions in service barriers on the Canadian market (EU market), are weighted by EU exports to

Canada (EU imports from Canada).

Unless explicitly mentioned, this section draws on European Commission (2018a) detailing the provisions in the EU-

Japan FTA.

European Commission (2018c).

The average NTB cost reductions on the Japanese market (EU market), are weighted by EU exports to Japan (EU

imports from Japan).

The average NTB cost reductions on the Japanese market (EU market), are weighted by EU exports to Japan (EU

imports from Japan).

European Commission (2018b).

The average reductions in service barriers on the Japanese market (EU market) are weighted by EU exports to

Japan (EU imports from Japan).

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

3.2.3 The EU-Mexico FTA

The EU-Mexico FTA was agreed in principle in April 2018 and will replace a previous agreement

between the EU and Mexico originally agreed in 2000.

Agri-food

The new agreement will target remaining tariffs in agriculture, and fully remove tariffs on more

than 85 per cent of tariff lines in agriculture and fisheries not previously liberalised. Partial liberali-

sation via tariff reductions and TRQs apply to the remaining products with the only exception being

the sugar sector, which is excluded from the agreement.

In relation to beef, the EU has granted Mexico a TRQ of 10,000 tons carcass weight equivalent and

a beef offal TRQ of 10,000 tons carcass weight equivalent. For both TRQs, an in-quota tariff of 7.5

per cent will be phased-in over 5 years. We estimate that the cost of non-tariff barriers in agri-food,

will on average be reduced by 21 per cent in Mexico and by 26 per cent in the EU.

Industrial goods

As all tariffs on industrial goods have already been eliminated by the previous agreement, the bene-

fits from this agreement for trade in industrial goods lie in the reduction of NTBs, which under the

previous agreement has been very limited. In contrast, the new agreement contains a number of

sector specific commitments in, e.g., pharmaceuticals, where both parties will cooperate on the

adoption of international standards. We estimate that the cost of NTBs for industrial goods will on

average be reduced by 6 per cent in both Mexico and the EU.

Services

The agreement also targets barriers to service trade across different sectors (delivery services, tele-

communications, maritime transport services etc.) and will make it easier for EU firms to provide

services on the Mexican market. We estimate that the cost of service barriers will on average be re-

duced by 7 per cent in Mexico and 4 per cent in the EU.

Figure 20 summarises the modelled ele-

ments in each agreement.

European Commission, DG Trade’s webpage. Unless explicitly mentioned, this section draws on European Com-

mission (2018) detailing the provisions in the modernised EU-Mexico FTA.

The average NTB cost reductions on the Mexican market (EU market), are weighted by EU exports to Mexico (EU

imports from Mexico).

The average NTB cost reductions on the Mexican market (EU market) are weighted by EU exports to Mexico (EU

imports from Mexico).

The average reductions in service barriers on the Mexican market (EU market) are weighted by EU exports to

Mexico (EU imports from Mexico).

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 20

Overview of the elements in each FTA that have been modelled

Note: The average reductions in the cost of non-tariff barriers is based on econometric modelling by J. Francois

and weighted by EU trade in each sector with each FTA partner.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on the sources referred to in the text

In the absence of the FTAs, EU exports face tariffs according to these countries’ tariff schedules to-

wards third countries (so-called Most Favoured Nation or MFN tariffs). Historically, tariffs have

been high on the Japanese market, especially for agri-food products. Average tariffs on Irish exports

of primary products to Japan are thus close to 53 per cent, while average tariffs on beef, sheep and

cattle meat are 32 per cent, cf. Table 1. Irish exporters of agri-food products also face high tariffs on

the Mexican market. This is especially so for dairy products, which face average tariffs of close to 20

per cent and beef, sheep and cattle meat, where tariffs are close to 14 per cent. The future tariff re-

ductions under each of these agreements are thus expected to provide Irish exporters of agri-food

products with a relatively large competitive advantage vis-à-vis exporters from third countries that

are not eligible for preferential access to these markets. In comparison, average MFN tariffs on the

Canadian market are much smaller and the gains of tariff reductions for Irish exporters are there-

fore expected to be smaller than in the case of the EU-Japan and EU-Mexico FTAs.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Table 1

Tariffs on Irish exports to Canada, Japan and Mexico – six sectors with the highest

tariffs before the FTAs

Note: The table shows Canada’s and Japan’s average weighted MFN tariff rates in each sector. Average tar-

iffs are weighted by Irish exports. In the case of Mexico, the tariffs shown are those that currently apply to

EU exports (under the previous EU-Mexico FTA) weighted by Irish exports. Tariffs on EU exports of industrial

goods to Mexico has already been eliminated by the previous EU-Mexico FTA and are therefore not

shown in the figure.

Source: Copenhagen Economics in cooperation with J. Francois based on data from GTAP, Eurostat, UNCTAD

and WTO

3.3 IMPACTS OF THE FTAS ON IRISH TRADE WITH

CANADA, JAPAN AND MEXICO

The FTAs are expected to increase Irish trade with both Canada and Japan, cf. Figure 21. Irish ex-

ports to Canada are expected to be 31 per cent higher than the baseline level in 2030 as a result of

the FTAs, while Irish imports from Canada are expected to be 84 per cent higher relative to a low

current import level of EUR 1.1 billion. The EU-Japan FTA promises large gains to Ireland, and

Irish exports to Japan are expected to increase by 150 per cent, while imports are expected to in-

crease by 5 per cent. The modernised FTA with Mexico is expected to have a minor positive impact

on Ireland’s imports from Mexico and a small negative impact on exports. The negative impact is

driven by a redirection of exports away from Mexico, as concluded FTAs open markets that are

more attractive than the Mexican, such as the Japanese (see Box 1 for a more detailed explanation

of the trade diversion mechanism in the applied CGE model).

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 21

Expected impacts of the FTAs on Irish trade with Canada, Japan and Mexico

Per cent change from baseline in 2030

Note: The figure shows the expected impact of the FTAs on Irish exports and imports of goods and services to

and from Canada, Japan and Mexico in 2030. Irish exports and imports of goods and services from each

of three FTA partners in 2019 are shown in the dark and light blue ovals on the right-hand side of the figure.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

In the case of Canada, the underlying results show that exports are expected to increase across all

sectors. The main driver of the overall impact is, however, increases in Irish exports to Canada of

products and services in the following sectors, in order of importance:

• Chemicals (incl. pharmaceuticals), which accounts for 30 per cent of current Irish exports

to Canada.

Under the FTA Irish exports in this sector to Canada are expected to increase

by just over 20 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

• Business and ICT services, which currently accounts for almost halve of Irish exports to

Canada. The FTA is expected to increase exports by just over 7 per cent, relative to the

2030 baseline level, which translates into a large absolute impact due to the size of exports

to Canada in this sector.

• Processed food, which also includes alcohol and spirits. While tariffs will be almost elimi-

nated for products in this sector, current weighted average tariffs facing Irish exports of

products in the sector to Canada are relatively low at 1.5 per cent. The cost of NTBs are

however estimated to be equivalent to a tariff rate of over 100 per cent but are expected to

be reduced by approximately 18 percentage points under the FTA. The changes in trade

costs are expected to increase exports by 56 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

• Other manufacturing, which includes exports of products such as textiles, apparel, leather

products, furniture, manufacturing of certain technical and laboratory equipment, and re-

cycling and processing of certain products (metals, plastics and chemicals) into raw mate-

Based on GTAP data from 2015.

84%

EU-Japan

-2%

EU-Canada

EU-Mexico

31%

150%

Exports Imports

3.1 bn.

EUR

0.5 bn.

EUR

11.0 bn

EUR

2.8 bn.

EUR

3.9 bn.

EUR

1.1 bn.

EUR

Irish exports and imports from

each FTA partner, 2019

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

rial. Currently Irish exports of products from this sector accounts for 4 per cent of Irish ex-

ports to Canada.

Irish exports to Canada within this sector consists mainly of woven fab-

rics, glass, alloys and knitted apparel.

Current weighted average tariffs facing Irish ex-

ports of products in the sector to Canada are very low at 0.25 per cent. The cost of NTBs

are estimated to be equivalent to a 20 per cent tariff and are expected to be reduced by ap-

proximately 5 percentage points under the FTA. The changes in trade costs are expected to

increase exports by more than 300 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

• Other machinery, which includes manufacturing of, e.g., medical, precision and optical

instruments. Current Irish exports to Canada within this sector consists mainly of medical

instruments and appliances, cranes and syringes amongst others.

While the sector cur-

rently accounts for 1 per cent of Irish exports to Canada

, the FTA is expected to increase

exports by more than 400 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

In combination, increases in exports in these five sectors account for 86 per cent of the total in-

crease in Irish exports to Canada resulting from the FTA.

Irish imports from Canada are also expected to increase in all sectors, except for business and ICT

services and wholesale and retail trade, where imports are expected to fall by 3.4 and 0.6 per cent

respectively. The positive impact on Irish trade with Canada is also in line with the expectations

voiced in our stakeholder meetings, where the English language and a relatively large Irish diaspora

in Canada were pointed to as important factors promoting Irish firms’ ability to enter the Canadian

market and take advantage of the FTA. There was also a general belief that Irish firms have a rela-

tively high awareness of the EU-Canada FTA and that Irish firms have increased their interest in the

Canadian market as a result of the FTA.

In the case of Japan, Irish exports are expected to be 150 per cent higher in 2030 due to the FTA,

while imports are expected to increase only by 5 per cent. The underlying results show that Irish ex-

ports to Japan are expected to increase in all sectors. Two-thirds of the increase is found in exports

of products in the sector other manufacturing, which currently accounts for 9 per cent

of Irish ex-

ports to Japan. Irish exports to Japan within this sector currently include exports of apparel and

textiles, dental equipment and equipment for chemical and technical use

(the sector also includes

technical and laboratory equipment as well as medical and dental instruments and equipment).

With the FTA in place, exports are expected to increase by more than 1,500 per cent to Japan, rela-

tive to the 2030 baseline level. However, the large relative increase must be seen in the light of it

being from a small base export (approximately EUR 26 million in Irish exports to Japan in 2016).

The sector is relatively small as it accounts for 2.4 per cent of total output in the Irish economy.

While an FTA will eliminate tariffs on Irish exports of products from this sector to Japan, current

tariffs are already very low (weighted average of 0.13 per cent). The cost of NTBs are however esti-

mated to be equivalent to a tariff of 21 per cent and are expected to be reduced by almost 15 per-

centage points. The main reduction in trade costs will thus arise from reduced NTBs.

Based on GTAP data from 2015.

Based on Eurostat data from 2016.

Based on GTAP data from 2015.

Based on GTAP data for 2015.

Based on Eurostat data for 2016.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Other sectors that account for a sizeable share of the overall impact includes:

• Chemicals (incl. pharmaceuticals), which currently accounts for the single largest share of

Irish exports to Japan (31 per cent).

The FTA is expected to increase Irish exports to Ja-

pan in this sector by close to 37 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

• Business and ICT services, which currently accounts for 23 per cent of Irish exports to Ja-

pan and which are expected to increase by just over 20 per cent, relative to the 2030 base-

line level.

• Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, which currently accounts for only 1 per cent of Irish ex-

ports to Japan. The sector, however, faces very high average tariffs of 52.5 per cent on the

Japanese market, which under the FTA is expected to fall to just under 8 per cent. Irish

exports to Japan in this sector are expected to be almost 20 times larger, relative to the

2030 baseline level, which is the largest per cent increase across sectors.

Combined, the increase of Irish exports in these four sectors account for 93 per cent of the total in-

crease in Irish exports to Japan.

Irish exports to Mexico are expected to be slightly lower (-2 per cent) with the FTAs in place in

2030, than without the FTAs in place. This is because the impact is modelled as the cumulative im-

pact that arise when all four FTAs are in place simultaneously. All things being equal, Irish produc-

ers will direct their resources towards selling in the markets, where they can find the largest value.

Overall, there is a small redirection of exports from Mexico to other markets where Irish producers

can find larger value. As mentioned, the EU-Mexico FTA is a modernization of an existing agree-

ment from 2000, and the additional trade cost reductions in the new FTA are therefore limited

compared to the more recently applied FTAs.

The underlying results mainly show that the negative impact on Irish exports to Mexico is driven by

a reduction in exports of manufactured goods and services and especially of chemicals (incl. phar-

maceuticals) and business and ICT services, whereby exports are expected to increase to both Ja-

pan and Canada. Irish exports from these sectors are highly concentrated and changes in a few

firms’ export decisions may therefore lead to large overall impacts.

The underlying results also show that the FTA is expected to increase Irish exports of both pro-

cessed foods and dairy to Mexico.

Exports of processed foods are expected to increase by 24 per

cent due to the FTA, while dairy exports are expected to increase by 8 per cent. The FTA will lower

the cost of NTBs in both sectors and will reduce tariffs.

3.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS

Irish exports of goods and services to Canada, Japan and Mexico have been on a positive long run

growth trajectory, and Irish exporters therefore seem to be in a good position to benefit from im-

proved access to these markets once the three concluded FTAs are fully implemented.

The FTAs are expected to increase Irish trade with Canada and Japan. The largest impact arises

from the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, as a result of which Irish exports to Japan

are expected to increase by 150 per cent relative to the 2030 baseline level. Most of this impact is

Based on GTAP data for 2015.

See Chapter 7 for dairy.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

due to increased exports in a few sectors and trade cost reductions are driven primarily by reduc-

tions in NTB costs. Irish exports to Canada are also expected to increase as a result of the FTA, due

primarily to increases of Irish exports in a few manufacturing sectors, business and ICT services

and the processed food sector. Finally, the EU FTAs are expected to reduce Irish exports to Mexico,

relative to the 2030 baseline level, as Irish exports will be diverted towards the other FTA markets.

Irish exports of dairy and processed foods to Mexico are however expected to increase.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

CHAPTER 4

MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE FTAS

In this chapter, we present the macroeconomic impact of the four FTAs on the Irish economy. We

present impacts on Irish global exports and imports, GDP, national income, real wages, consumer

prices and welfare.

4.1 IMPACTS OF THE FTAS ON IRELAND’S GLOBAL TRADE

Aside from the impact that the FTAs have on Irish trade with the partner countries, FTAs can also

impact Irish trade with third countries, both positively and negatively. It is therefore important to

examine the impact of the FTAs on Ireland’s overall export and import levels.

The impact of the FTAs on Irish overall trade depends on whether the increase in Irish trade with a

given partner country is new trade (trade creation) or whether it is diverted from other markets

(trade diversion). Part of the increase in Irish exports to the partner countries, may be redirected

from third countries if the reduction in trade barriers makes exports to the FTA partner countries

relatively more profitable and accessible than to other markets. There may also be trade diversion

between the FTA markets. Irish exports may divert from some FTA markets, towards other FTA

markets, where Irish exporters have a relatively large competitive advantage and where demand is

highest (see methodology description in Box 1).

Trade diversion is therefore particularly likely to take place in markets that are highly protected by

trade barriers because high prices are likely to make the market more attractive for Irish exporters

than other destinations. In this case, trade diversion will tend to increase the earnings of Irish ex-

porters even without an increase in production. Similarly, trade diversion may be particularly rele-

vant in the case of agricultural products where production capacity can be constrained, e.g. by the

availability of arable land or live stocks.

Similarly, the increase in imports into Ireland from the FTA partner countries may also result in de-

creased imports from other sources as the price of imports from the FTA partners falls due to lower

trade costs.

Furthermore, Irish trade with the FTA partners may also have a positive impact on Irish trade with

third countries. This can occur, for example, if increased reliance on economies of scale or access to

lower priced inputs from the FTA partners make Irish exporters more competitive globally. Finally,

Irish exports to the FTA partners may also pave the way for Irish exports to other countries, e.g. via

complementarities in production, logistics or transportation systems.

As Irish exports to third

countries increase, Irish imports from third countries will likely also increase due to global supply

chains.

Copenhagen Economics (2016).

Studies in the academic trade literature have also found that if a given exporter already exports to one market,

the likelihood of exporting to a market nearby increases significantly (Lawless, 2011). This means that if EU export-

ers start exporting to a partner country as a result of the trade agreement, they may also be more likely to start

exporting to nearby markets.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Overall, we find that the four FTAs lead to an increase in Irish global exports by 3.3 per cent in 2030

than would have been the case without the four FTAs in place. It is however, important to notice

that the impact from the EU-South Korea and the EU-Mexico FTA does not reflect the full impacts

of the FTAs. In the case of the EU-South Korea FTA, only the impact of the trade cost reductions oc-

curring after 2015 are included. In the case of the EU-Mexico FTA, impacts only include additional

trade cost reductions occurring as a result of the new FTA.

Figure 22

Expected impacts of the four FTAs on Irish global exports, 2030

Per cent change from baseline in 2030

Note: The figure shows the expected impact of the four FTAs on Irish global exports in 2030. In the case of the EU-

South Korea FTA, the impact arising from the trade cost reductions that took place between 2011 and

2015 is in the baseline. The impact of the EU-South Korea FTA in 2030 is therefore quantified based only on

the additional trade cost reductions occurring after 2015.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

The largest impact arises from the EU-Japan agreement, which is expected to drive three-quarters

of the combined impact. The large impact of the EU-Japan FTA relative to the other FTAs indicate

that this FTA opens up trade opportunities with a partner that is very attractive from an Irish per-

spective, and that the FTA secures a preferential access relative to competitors in third countries.

When all FTAs are implemented simultaneously, this means that Irish exports will tend to divert

towards Japan. Other EU Member States may find other markets more attractive for their composi-

tion of exports and imports.

The four FTAs are also expected to increase Irish global imports by almost the same relative change

in 2030 (3.3 per cent; the numbers are slightly different on a two-decimal level). As in the case of

exports, the EU-Japan agreement is the main driver of the impact, while the EU FTAs with South

Korea and Mexico contribute very little to the overall impact. The percentage increase on Irish

global imports for each FTA is similar to the increase in exports for the four FTAs. However, the im-

pacts on exports and imports differ across sectors.

The impacts from the EU-South Korea

and EU-Mexico FTA do not reflect the full

impact of the FTAs

0.5%

0.1%

EU-South Korea EU-CanadaEU-Mexico EU-Japan

2.7%

Cumulative impact

of the four FTAs

0.1%

Tariffs

NTBs

goods

NTBs

services

0.0%

0.7%

2.5% 3.3%

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 23

Expected impacts of the four FTAs on Irish global imports, 2030

Per cent change from baseline in 2030

Note: The figure shows the expected impact of the four FTAs on Irish global imports in 2030. In the case of the EU-

South Korea FTA, the impacts arising from the trade cost reductions that took place between 2011 and

2015 are in the baseline. The impact of the EU- South Korea FTA in 2030 is therefore quantified based only

on the additional trade cost reductions occurring after 2015.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

4.2 IMPACTS OF THE FTAS ON IRISH GDP AND NATIONAL

INCOME

Overall, the four FTAs will increase trade, GDP and national income. When trade frictions are re-

moved, trade becomes cheaper. The increased market access means that the countries can special-

ise in production, where they have a comparative advantage, i.e. specialise in products which the

country produces relatively more productively. Labour and capital resources will gradually shift to-

wards producing these products. Thus, when countries specialise overall production will increase

with the same amount of inputs, leading to an increase in GDP and national income.

The impacts from the FTAs do not only affect the bilateral trade, i.e. the trade between Ireland and

the FTA partners. The impact is measured on trade with all countries and trade within the EU.

There might be positive or negative impacts on the Irish trade balance with the FTA partners, but

not necessarily the same impact on the Irish trade balance with the world.

The impacts of the FTAs on Irish global trade will in turn impact Irish production and ultimately

GDP. Overall, we find that the four FTAs are expected to increase Irish GDP by 2.3 per cent in 2030,

compared to a scenario where the four FTAs are not present.

The EU-Japan agreement alone is

The OECD currently projects that Irish GDP in 2030 will be €420.9 bn (30 per cent higher than in 2020), though the

projection does take into account current and prospective FTAs. Hence, one cannot simply apply our estimated

GDP increase of 2.3 per cent to the OECD figures without carefully assessing the underlying assumptions and esti-

mations for the OECD projection. See OECD Long-term baseline projections, No. 103, available at:

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/oecd-economic-outlook-statistics-and-projections/long-term-

baseline-projections-no-103_68465614-en.

The impacts from the EU-South Korea

and EU-Mexico FTA do not reflect the full

impact of the FTAs

EU-MexicoEU-South Korea EU-Canada

0.5%

NTBs

services

Cumulative impact

of the four FTAs

EU-Japan

0.1%

2.7%

NTBs

goods

Tariffs

0.1%

0.0%

0.7%

2.5% 3.3%

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

expected to increase Irish GDP by 2.1 per cent and thus accounts for the majority of the combined

impact, cf. Figure 24. This reflects the scale of existing trade with Japan, the attractiveness of the

Japanese market and the scope of the FTA.

Looking across the different elements in the FTAs, we see that the increase in Irish GDP is due

mainly to the reductions of NTBs on goods relative to reductions in tariffs and NTBs on services.

This finding reflects the depth of the new deep and comprehensive EU FTAs in terms of reducing

regulatory trade barriers.

Figure 24

Expected impacts of the four FTAs on Irish GDP, 2030

Per cent change from baseline in 2030

Note: The figure shows the expected impact of the four FTAs on Irish GDP in 2030. In the case of the EU-South

Korea FTA, the impacts arising from the trade cost reductions that took place between 2011 and 2015 are

in the baseline. The impact of the EU- South Korea FTA in 2030 is therefore quantified based only on the

additional trade cost reductions occurring after 2015.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

4.3 IMPACTS OF THE FTAS ON IRISH WAGES, CONSUMER

PRICES AND WELFARE

FTAs do not generally influence the level of employment in the economy in the long term. The level

of employment is determined by the labour supply and underlying structural factors in the Irish

economy and the labour market. While the model therefore predicts equilibrium in jobs, FTAs do

influence real wages through their impact on both nominal wages and consumer prices. In this way,

FTAs support new, higher paid jobs in more sustainable firms with high productivity and global

competitiveness compared to other firms.

At the sector-level, employment effects occur due to the reallocation of labour away from contract-

ing sectors towards expanding sectors. The change in labour demand across sectors will give rise to

initial wage differences, which will incentivise workers to reallocate across sectors until labour is

efficiently reallocated. The skill composition of the labour force is assumed to be fixed.

The impacts from the EU-South Korea

and EU-Mexico FTA do not reflect the full

impact of the FTAs

2.2%

EU-CanadaEU-Mexico

NTBs

services

EU-South Korea EU-Japan

0.1%

0.05%

Tariffs

NTBs

goods

2.3%

0.2%

0.0%

2.1%

Commulative

impact of the

four FTAs

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

At the aggregate level, we assume a fixed long-run labour supply. Under this assumption, any

changes in aggregate labour demand will be captured through wage changes instead of changes to

employment levels, which only occur at the sector-level due to reallocation effects. Similarly, as

wages will equalise across sectors in equilibrium, wage effects only occur at the aggregate level in

the model. Immediately below, we discuss the latter effects and present employment effects at the

sector-level in subsequent chapters.

Real wages are also affected by changes in consumer prices. The reduction in trade barriers will

cause the price of imported final goods and services to fall. The degree to which this will lead to a

fall in consumer prices depends however on the degree of competition in the market, as the full cost

savings may not be passed to the consumer if competition is limited. The impact on consumer

prices may also be reversed if the FTAs cause a change in the composition of imports towards

higher quality products.

Overall, we find that the FTAs have a small impact on consumer prices in Ireland, which are ex-

pected to increase by 0.4 per cent, which is likely caused by a shift towards higher quality products.

The impact is small and less than the increase in nominal wages, causing real wages to increase and

leaving consumers better off than without the FTAs.

Our simulations show that real wages will increase for all skill groups in the economy, with a higher

relative increase for low skilled labour than for medium and high skilled labour, cf. Figure 25. A key

driver for this result is the large increase in exports of agri-food products where production to a

large extent uses low skilled labour.

Figure 25

Expected impact on real wages by skill groups

Per cent change from baseline in 2030

Note: The figure shows the expected impact of the four FTAs on real wages across skill groups in 2030.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

4.3.1 Welfare changes

The best way to measure impacts on welfare is through changes in real national income. Real na-

tional income is a different measure than GDP and is a measure of the actual purchasing power

available for final consumption, given changes in both output and prices.

4.4%

Low skill and agricultural Medium skill High skill

2.4%

2.6%

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Real national income better captures shifts in the economy towards a more efficient basket of goods

and services, as well as changes in final consumption prices. According to our simulations of the

four FTAs, real national income in Ireland is predicted to increase by 2.8 per cent in 2030. Thus,

the FTAs will increase welfare for Irish citizens. The impact is larger than the effect on GDP of 2.3

per cent. The reasons for this is that the FTAs will lead to an overall shift to higher-quality products

in Ireland from increased competition from imports (the fact that real national income increases

more than GDP, and the fact that the absolute price level increases by 0.4 per cent as presented pre-

viously, indicates an overall quality increase). Furthermore, the export prices that Irish exporters

can get for its products on the world markets will increase (which is why exports are redirected to-

wards to the new FTA markets). Therefore, the Irish purchasing power increases.

4.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS

The four FTAs are expected to bring substantial benefits to the Irish economy. Global Irish exports

and imports of goods and services are expected to increase by 3.3 per cent, respectively. Changes in

Irish trade will in turn impact Irish production and ultimately Irish GDP, which is expected to in-

crease by up to 2.3 per cent. The FTAs are also expected to increase Irish real wages across all skill

groups and lead to welfare improvements.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

CHAPTER 5

SECTORAL IMPACTS OF THE FTAS

In this chapter, we present the sectoral impact of the four FTAs on the Irish economy. We present

impacts on production and employment across key sectors. We also assess impacts on productivity,

where an increase in production without no (or a smaller) increase in employment is interpreted as

a productivity gain.

5.1 IMPACTS OF THE FTAS ON PRODUCTION ACROSS

SECTORS

When taking all impacts of the new trade agreements with the four FTA partners into account, the

change in output is the measure that best captures all the underlying dynamics.

Lower costs of trading with the four FTA partners will have a direct impact on Irish exports to the

FTA partners across sectors and the amount of production needed in Ireland. As the FTAs apply to

the EU as a whole, Irish exports to the EU may also be affected if EU exporters demand more input

from Irish producers (increases exports to the EU). Similarly, Irish firms that export to the FTA

partners may demand more input from EU producers (increases imports from the EU). Finally, in-

creased exports from the FTA partners to the EU may also compete with Irish exports to the EU

(lower Irish exports to the EU).

The reduction in trade barriers vis-a-vis the FTA partners may also make the FTA partners more

attractive relative to other trading partners, and so Irish exports may be redirected from other desti-

nations to the FTA partners (at a higher price). Irish imports from the FTA partners may similarly

replace imports from other countries (at a lower price).

Lower costs of imported input from the FTA partners and economies of scale will further help make

Irish producers more competitive in their global markets (increases global exports). Higher income

due to the FTA increases demand in Ireland and other EU Member States, which again will have an

impact on Irish production. Our estimates of changes in production in each sector takes all these

interactions into account.

We find that production is expected to increase in more than half of the sectors in the Irish economy

as a result of the four FTAs, cf. Figure 26. In percentage terms, the sector that is expected to enjoy

the largest increase in production due to the FTAs is the other manufacturing sector, in which pro-

duction is expected to increase by 36 per cent, from the 2030 baseline. This is followed by the con-

struction sector, in which production is expected to increase by 2.5 per cent, from the 2030 base-

line.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 26

Expected impacts of the four FTAs on output by sector

Per cent change from baseline in 2030

Note: The figure shows the expected impact of the four FTAs on output across sectors in 2030.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

The labour demand will change across sectors will adjust wages. This leads to a redistribution of

workers between sectors. Wages adjust for each skills group accordingly. We have assumed a fixed

long run labour supply in Ireland to assess the isolated impact of the FTAs. Thus, we do not model

changes in labour market participation rates due to migration or other factors (e.g. demographics).

This assumption means that changes in labour demand will be transferred into wage changes and

not total employment changes.

However, it should be noted that it is possible that that the increase in exports will lead to increases

in the Irish employment rate. According to the European Commission, Irish exports to non-EU

countries supported more than 1 million jobs in Ireland in 2017.

This is an increase with 37 per

cent compared to 2011 when the EU-Korea FTA entered into force, when Irish extra-EU exports

supported approximately 760,000 jobs.

European Commission, 2018, EU exports to the world: effects on employment, page 22. Available at:

https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/november/tradoc_157516.pdf.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Wood and paper products

Wholesale and retail trade

Processed foods

0.2

Beef, sheep and other cattle meat

-0.1

-1.0Dairy

Air transport

Other transport equipment

Electrical machinery

Chemicals (incl. pharma)

Business and ICT serv ices

Energy and petrochemicals

0.3

Metals and metal products

Other machinery

Motor vehicles and parts

Communications

Construction

Other transport

1.7

Water transport

Other services

Personal services

-0.8Finance

Insurance

35.9

-41.6

0.9

0.2

-0.2

2.0

Other manufacturing

1.3

0.5

-0.7

-2.2

-3.2

0.7

0.5

1.0

0.7

0.4

-1.4

2.5

Ambitious scenario

Share of total

value added, 2015

1.4%

2.6%

0.6%

0.7%

2.4%

4.6%

0.3%

21.8%

1.8%

0.4%

2.0%

1.5%

0.1%

2.5%

1.6%

0.8%

0.1%

1.5%

1.0%

4.3%

23.6%

10.1%

14.2%

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

5.2 MAIN SECTORS TO BENEFIT FROM THE FTAS

Five sectors account for just over 89 per cent of the expected increase in output from the four

FTAs.

This includes, in order of absolute increase, other manufacturing, business and ICT ser-

vices, Chemicals (incl. pharmaceuticals), electrical machinery, and wholesale and retail. Each of

these sectors is discussed in turn below.

5.2.1 Other manufacturing

This sector includes manufacturing of products such as apparel, leather products, mineral products

(e.g. tiles, bricks and ceramics), technical and laboratory equipment, recycling/processing of mate-

rials and music instruments. The estimated impact of the FTAs on the sector is a rise in global ex-

ports of 57 per cent. Irish global imports of products in the sector are expected to increase by 13 per

cent. The sector is amongst the smaller sectors in Ireland and accounted for 2.4 per cent of output

in 2015. Therefore, the large relative changes should be seen in that light.

The increase in output is estimated at 36 per cent. Over half of the total increase in output in Ire-

land is due to the increased output in this sector. The EU-Japan FTA is the main driver of this im-

pact and accounts for 95 per cent of the expected increase in output in the sector. This happens as a

result of increased exports from lower tariffs and NTBs which increase Ireland’s competitiveness in

this sector. It is important to note that this increase may stem from both an increase in exports of

already exported products (the so-called intensive margin of trade), as well as from the opportunity

to export products that are currently not exported (the so-called extensive margin of trade). The

CGE model does not allow for a detailed separation of these two impacts. Currently, Irish exports to

Japan consist of apparel and textiles, dental equipment and equipment for chemical and technical

use.

As the sector expands, employment in the sector is also expected to increase due to reallocation ef-

fects. Our simulations predict that the FTAs will increase employment by 30 per cent across all skill

groups in the industry, cf. Table 2.

This is measured relative to value added in 2015 across sectors with increasing output, based on GTAP data.

Based on GTAP data.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Table 2

Impacts of the four FTAs in the other manufacturing sector (percentage change rel-

ative to 2030 baseline)

Output and trade effects

OUTPUT (VOLUME)

EXPORTS (VALUE)

IMPORTS (VALUE)

+36%

+57%

+13%

Employment effects

LOW SKILLED

MEDIUM SKILLED

HIGH SKILLED

+29%

+31%

Note: The upper part of the table shows the estimated impact of the FTAs on Irish output volume and Irish

global exports and import value of products in the sector, relative to the 2030 baseline. The lower part of

the table shows the equivalent impact on employment in the sector across skill groups.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

Based on the distribution of employment across skill groups in the sector in 2015, we estimate that

employment in the sector will increase by approximately 30 per cent relative to the 2030 baseline,

although from a relatively small employment base.

As the expected increase in output exceeds the

expected increase in employment in the sector, this implies that productivity is also expected to in-

crease.

5.2.2 Business and ICT services

This is by far the largest service sector in Ireland, accounting for close to a quarter of total value

added.

The FTAs are expected to result in Irish global exports and imports of products in this sec-

tor to increase by approximately 2 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline.

Output in the sector is expected to increase by approximately 1 per cent. However, due to the size of

the sector, this translates into a large absolute impact and accounts for 15 per cent of the total ex-

pected increase in output as a result of the FTAs.

While output is expected to increase, our simulations predict that the FTAs will reallocate employ-

ment away from the sector across all skill groups to other sectors in the economy, relative to the

2030 baseline. The largest impact is expected for low skilled with a reduction of 3 per cent, relative

to the 2030 baseline. The underlying driver of this results is enhanced labour productivity in the

sector as a result of the FTAs from better utilisation of the production, with the increased market

access and lower import prices on inputs.

The overall employment effect is a weighted average of the employment impact across skill groups, weighted

by the number of employees in the sector in each skill group in 2015, based on employment data from Eurostat,

distributed across skill groups based on wage distribution from GTAP.

Based on 2015 GTAP data.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Table 3

Impacts of the four FTAs in the business and ICT sector (percentage change rela-

tive to 2030 baseline)

Output and trade effects

OUTPUT (VOLUME)

EXPORTS (VALUE)

IMPORTS (VALUE)

+1%

+2%

Employment effects

LOW SKILLED

MEDIUM SKILLED

HIGH SKILLED

-3%

-1%

Note: The upper part of the table shows the estimated impact of the FTAs on Irish output volume and Irish

global exports and import value of products in the sector, relative to the 2030 baseline. The lower part of

the table shows the equivalent impact on employment in the sector across skill groups.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

Based on the distribution of employment across skill groups in the sector in 2015, we estimate that

2 per cent of the employment in the sector will be reallocated to other sectors in the economy, rela-

tive to the 2030 baseline. Combined with a 1 per cent expected increase of output in the sector, this

means that labour productivity in the sector is expected to increase.

5.2.3 Chemicals (incl. pharmaceuticals)

This is by far the largest manufacturing sector in Ireland, accounting for just over a fifth of total

value added in 2015.

The FTAs are expected to increase exports by approximately 1 per cent and imports by 2 per cent

relative to the 2030 baseline. Output is expected to be approximately 1 per cent higher than the

baseline level in 2030 due to the FTAs. Due to the size of the sector, the small percentage impact,

however, translates into a large absolute impact and increases in output in this sector alone ac-

counts for 9 per cent of the expected increase in output.

As in the case of business and ICT services, the FTAs are expected to lead to increases in productiv-

ity in the sector. Despite expected increases in output, some of the employment in the sector is ex-

pected to be reallocated to other sectors relative to the 2030 baseline level across all skill groups,

with the largest impact on low skilled workers. The increased productivity in the sector means that

fewer people are needed in the sector, while other, more labour-intensive, sectors in Ireland in-

crease their demand for workers, which will result in the reallocation of workers to other sectors.

Based on GTAP 2015 data.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Table 4

Impacts of the four FTAs in the chemicals (incl. pharmaceutical) sector (percent-

age change relative to 2030 baseline)

Output and trade effects

OUTPUT (VOLUME)

EXPORTS (VALUE)

IMPORTS (VALUE)

+1%

+2%

Employment effects

LOW SKILLED

MEDIUM SKILLED

HIGH SKILLED

-4%

-2%

Note: The upper part of the table shows the estimated impact of the FTAs on Irish output volume and Irish

global exports and import value of products in the sector, relative to the 2030 baseline. The lower part of

the table shows the equivalent impact on employment in the sector across skill groups.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

5.2.4 Electrical machinery

Following the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, electrical machinery is the second largest man-

ufacturing sector in Ireland, accounting for just under 5 per cent of total value added.

The sector

includes manufacturing of, e.g., office machines, automatic data processing machines, radio, televi-

sion, and communication equipment and apparatus.

The FTAs are expected to increase Irish global exports in this sector by approximately 2 per cent,

relative to the 2030 baseline. Irish global imports are expected to increase by 3 per cent, relative to

the 2030 baseline level.

Output in the sector is expected to increase by approximately 2 per cent, accounting for approxi-

mately 6 per cent of the total expected increase in output as a result of the FTAs.

While output is expected to increase, our simulations predict that the FTAs will reallocate employ-

ment away from this sector for low skilled workers to other sectors, relative to the 2030 baseline.

However, the FTAs are not expected to impact employment of medium and high skilled workers in

the sector.

Based on the distribution of employment across skill groups in the sector in 2015, we expect overall

employment in the sector to be approximately 1 per cent lower than the baseline level in 2030 due

to the FTAs. Coupled with increases in output, this implies that labour productivity enhancements

are expected in the sector. Again, the increased productivity in the sector and increased demand for

workers in other sectors result in this reallocation of employment.

Based on value added data from 2015.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Table 5

Impacts of the four FTAs in the electrical machinery sector (percentage change rel-

ative to 2030 baseline)

Output and trade effects

OUTPUT (VOLUME)

EXPORTS (VALUE)

IMPORTS (VALUE)

+2%

+3%

Employment effects

LOW SKILLED

MEDIUM SKILLED

HIGH SKILLED

-2%

Note: The upper part of the table shows the estimated impact of the FTAs on Irish output volume and Irish

global exports and import value of products in the sector, relative to the 2030 baseline. The lower part of

the table shows the equivalent impact on employment in the sector across skill groups.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

5.2.5 Wholesale and retail

The wholesale and retail sector is one of the largest service sectors in Ireland, accounting for more

than 10 per cent of total value added.

The output in the sector is expected to increase by almost 1 per cent as a result of the FTAs. The sec-

tor accounts for 5 per cent of the total expected increase in the output as a result of the FTAs. How-

ever, exports are expected to decrease by 1 per cent, implying that the increase in output will pri-

marily originate from the Irish market rather than overseas sales. Imports are expected to increase

by 3 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline. Since the FTAs will have a positive impact on Irish over-

all GDP, overall demand for products and services will increase in Ireland, leading to increased out-

put (and sales) for Irish wholesalers and retailers.

Our simulations predict that the FTAs will decrease overall employment in the sector, relative to the

2030 baseline level, with all skill groups having decreasing employment. The employment of low

skilled workers is expected to decrease the most with around 3 per cent decrease relative to the

2030 baseline.

The increase in output and decrease in employment imply an increased productivity in the sector as

a result of the FTAs, as output increases while the demand for labour increases more strongly in

other sectors of the economy.

Based on value added data from 2015.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Table 6

Impacts of the four FTAs in the wholesale and retail sector

Output and trade effects

OUTPUT (VOLUME)

EXPORTS (VALUE)

IMPORTS (VALUE)

+1%

-1%

+3%

Employment effects

LOW SKILLED

MEDIUM SKILLED

HIGH SKILLED

-3%

-1%

Note: The upper part of the table shows the estimated impact of the FTAs on Irish output volume and Irish

global exports and import value of products in the sector, relative to the 2030 baseline. The lower part of

the table shows the equivalent impact on employment in the sector across skill groups.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on CGE simulations in cooperation with J. Francois

5.3 SECTORS THAT SHOULD PREPARE TO ADJUST

The FTAs will require adjustments and timely preparation in all sectors and for all types of firms

being exposed to international competition for Ireland to take full advantage of the new export op-

portunities offered by the FTAs. Some sectors will be especially exposed to competition or especially

likely to face challenges as other sectors grow and draw resources away from them. This includes

dairy, other transport equipment, motor vehicles and parts, finance and insurance.

Throughout this report, it should be kept in mind that the impacts are to be interpreted in terms of

‘all other things being equal’ (i.e. on a ‘no policy change’ basis).

5.3.1 Finance

Finance is a relatively large sector in Ireland, accounting for just over 4 per cent of total value

added.

The FTAs are expected to increase exports in this sector by approximately 1 per cent. Im-

ports are also expected to increase by approximately 2 per cent. Overall, the impact on imports out-

weigh the impact on exports, resulting in an expected reduction in output of approximately 1 per

cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

The negative impact on output translates into a reallocation of employment away from the finance

sector across all skill groups. We therefore expect employment of low skilled workers to be approxi-

mately 4 per cent lower in the sector, relative to the 2030 baseline. Employment of medium and

high skilled workers in the sector is expected to be approximately 2 and 3 per cent lower than the

2030 baseline level, respectively. Since employment is expected to decrease by more than output,

the productivity increases in the sector, implying that fewer people are needed for the production.

The output decreases due to increased competition from abroad, which is another factor that causes

employment reallocation away from this sector to other sectors.

5.3.2 Insurance

The insurance sector is about half the size of the financial service sector, accounting for 2 per cent of

total value added.

Based on 2015 GTAP data.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

The FTAs are expected to lower exports, in this sector by approximately 1 per cent, relative to the

2030 baseline level. At the same time while imports are expected to increase by approximately 1 per

cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

The positive impact on imports, combined with the negative impact on exports, results in an overall

negative impact on output, which is expected to be approximately 1 per cent below the 2030 base-

line as a result of the FTAs.

The negative impact on output translates into negative employment effects across all skill groups.

Thus, we expect overall employment of low skilled workers to be approximately 5 per cent lower in

the sector than the 2030 baseline. The employment of both medium and high skilled workers in the

sector is expected to decrease by approximately 3 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

Finance and insurance are among the sectors that are expected to grow because of Brexit. The FTAs

are expected to slow this growth, with the overall impact being dependent on the specific impacts of

the agreement reached between the EU and the UK. As with finance, this is due to increased compe-

tition from the FTA countries and increased productivity in the sector. The employment will allo-

cate to other sectors in the economy.

5.3.3 Other machinery

Manufacturing of other machinery includes manufacturing of e.g. medical, precision and optical in-

struments. The sector accounts for almost 2 per cent of value added.

The FTAs are expected to result in increasing Irish global exports in this sector by approximately 4

per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline. Irish global imports are expected to increase by 5 per cent,

relative to the 2030 baseline level. Output in the sector is expected to decrease by approximately 2

per cent as imports increase more than exports.

Our simulations predict that the FTAs will decrease overall employment in the sector, relative to the

2030 baseline level, across all skill groups. We estimate a negative impact on employment for low

skilled workers of 5 per cent in the sector, while employment of medium and high skill groups will

decrease 3 and 4 per cent, respectively. The same effects apply for this sector as with finance and

insurance. The FTAs increase the competition in the sector, and foreign competitors take over some

of the market. Furthermore, with increased productivity fewer people are needed in the sector.

5.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS

Output in most sectors of the Irish economy is expected to increase, relative to the 2030 baseline

level as a result of the FTAs. A small number of sectors account for 89 per cent of the expected in-

crease in output: Other manufacturing, business and ICT services, chemicals (incl. pharmaceuti-

cals), electrical machinery, and wholesale and retail. The FTAs are expected to impact productivity

in all these sectors positively and output is therefore expected to increase more than employment in

these sectors. The FTAs will also lead to challenges in some sectors, including finance, insurance,

and other machinery if there is no active mitigation. In these sectors increased import competition

is expected to lower output by approximately 1-2 per cent, relative to the 2030 baseline level.

Based on 2015 GTAP data.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

CHAPTER 6

POLICY CONCLUSIONS AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

In this chapter, we describe main conclusions and policy options for Ireland to ensure that the max-

imum benefit is gained from the EU FTAs and how the challenges that the FTAs present for certain

sectors are best met. Recommendations focus on both domestic enterprise policies as well as the EU

trade policies required to negotiate the best possible outcome for Ireland of future FTAs.

6.1 MAIN POLICY CONCLUSIONS

The report demonstrates that FTAs have the potential to increase Ireland’s economic growth. Im-

plementation of the selected FTAs analysed in this study indicates higher economic growth than

would be the case relative to a baseline scenario without the FTAs. The FTAs therefore provide an

opportunity to accelerate Ireland’s economic growth beyond its expected trajectory.

Notwithstanding the positive impact of FTAs on trade, it is also evident that growth is not uniformly

distributed across sectors. As a relatively small, advanced, and open economy, Ireland’s sectoral mix

is constantly evolving, for example through the transition to higher value-added manufacturing ac-

tivities or in the increasing role of services in Ireland’s export base. The challenges for the policy

system are to highlight new and emerging opportunities and to identify and implement appropriate

policy responses where sectors face increased competition.

This requires guidance and supports that will assist firms to diversify their product and market mix.

It is also important to help manage sectors that are negatively impacted through increased market

access brought about through FTAs. This has long been a feature of Ireland’s open and export-ori-

ented economy. At the same time, it is important to be cognisant that not all sectors benefit equally

through FTAs such that a varied set of tailored policy responses for different sectors and/or sub-

sectors is most appropriate, including innovation, internationalisation, and labour market supports.

The analysis presented in the report is based on a ‘no-policy change’ scenario, accounting for the

estimated macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of removing tariff and non-tariff barriers through

FTAs. To fully capitalise on their potential, it requires continued development of overseas markets

by companies assisted by their sectoral bodies as well as the enterprise development agencies who

can provide in-market support for exporting and FDI firms. This chimes with the objectives set out

in Ireland’s national enterprise strategy Enterprise 2025 Renewed, which supports the Enterprise

Agencies to seek greater resilience and market diversification in the client bases and should assist

the Agencies in further evaluating their global footprint. It also underlines the importance of the

Enterprise Agencies, along with Science Foundation Ireland and other research agencies, in contin-

uing to develop the innovation capacity of the enterprise base to deliver new and improved products

and services that enable firms to compete globally and maximise the new or enhanced market op-

portunities that FTAs bring.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

The growth potential offered by FTAs also serves as a reminder for continued domestic focus on

competitiveness in areas such as costs, skills, infrastructure, tax, regulation and macroeconomic

stability as advocated, for example, by the National Competitiveness Council. It is critical to ensure

that Ireland does not lose focus on the importance of competitiveness in supporting an export-led

growth strategy and that Irish goods and services remain competitively priced for international

markets.

The analysis also demonstrates that tariffs and quotas are still important in certain sectors such as

agriculture. However, the analysis further shows that non-tariff barriers are the most critical and

impactful barriers to address in generating growth. The FTAs therefore have the potential to change

Ireland’s terms of trade with existing trading partners, and potentially increase or divert demand

for exports to markets which are more advantageous through the removal of trade barriers. This

provides both challenges and opportunities for Irish firms and depends on capacity to respond flexi-

bly to new opportunities. It also highlights the continuing need for the Enterprise Agencies to assist

clients when breaking into new markets, overcoming cultural and regulatory burdens and connect-

ing them with buyers/investors.

Finally, this report shows that the highest level of economic impact, at a macro level, is in a scenario

where there is full implementation of an FTA. However, it is also clear that there are challenges in

fully implementing FTAs. The survey data indicates a general lack of awareness among firms of the

existence of FTAs and associated opportunities, suggesting a significant need for promotion of FTAs

within the enterprise base. Internationally, there is also evidence to suggest that preferential tariff

rates achieved by FTAs are not being fully utilised by the FTA trading partners.

This indicates that

firms may face knowledge gaps and/or administrative burdens in securing preferential rates, and

suggests more could be done to help translate the benefits of FTAs to impact at firm level.

The recommendations below are aimed at maximising the benefits of FTAs for Ireland while also

supporting and mitigating any impacts that may arise through increasing market access and compe-

tition. Policy recommendations are based on findings in the previous chapters and our engagement

with stakeholders.

6.2 NEGOTIATING THE BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME FOR

IRELAND

During our engagement with stakeholders, a number of specific elements in EU FTAs were stressed

as being of particular importance to Ireland. These are all elements which can help ensure the best

possible outcome of ongoing and future trade negotiations for Ireland and include:

• General Principles for Ireland’s FTA priorities

• SME chapters

• Increased international cooperation by standardising bodies

• Protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights

• Protection of geographical indications

• Distribution of EU TRQs for beef and sheep meat

Swedish National Board of Trade (2018), The Use of the EU’s Free Trade Agreements - Exporter and Importer Utili-

sation of Preferential Tariffs.

See list of stakeholders in Appendix A.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Each of these elements are discussed in turn below.

6.2.1 General Principles

Ireland should review actions to best prepare for achieving the benefits of newly concluded FTAs.

The Irish government has identified the main opportunities (offensive interests) and threats (defen-

sive interests) for Ireland in each of these negotiations and has communicated these considerations

in the preparation of these negotiations. Policy measures to support this include:

• Capitalising on opportunities and mitigating adverse impacts through developing greater

synergies between FTA negotiations and areas of enterprise development such as innova-

tion, trade policy, inward investment and the strong performance of enterprise agencies at

home and overseas.

• Ensuring strong and continuous stakeholder engagement with industry bodies and Gov-

ernment Departments to ensure Ireland’s interests are clearly advocated at EU level.

• Communicating and collaborating effectively with Ireland’s like-minded EU Member

States at EU level and bilaterally to build coalitions around Ireland’s offensive and defen-

sive trade interests.

• Continuous monitoring of trade and investment trends, nationally and globally to help in-

form where trade opportunities are arising across Ireland’s key sectors.

• Proactively engaging with relevant actors when new FTAs have been concluded and enter-

ing into force to raise awareness and promote the new opportunities which are presented

through the FTA process.

6.2.2 SME chapters

The cost of entering new export markets can be disproportionately high for small and medium sized

enterprises (SMEs), who have less resources available to do so. The cost of overcoming NTBs, such

as e.g. conformity assessments, possible product adaptation, and other costs related to divergences

in regulation, can thus place a heavier burden on SMEs than on larger firms, which can afford legal

and other professional advice on regulatory requirements.

FTAs that reduce these types of barriers are therefore expected to particularly benefit SMEs. The

European Commission recognises this and is committed to focusing attention on small businesses

in trade negotiations. This includes ‘dedicated SME provisions in all negotiations, including dedi-

cated web portals to facilitate access to information on product requirements in foreign markets,

opportunities provided by FTAs, and available support”.

This also echoes the input we received

from the stakeholder meetings, where difficulties entering new export markets and establishing dis-

tribution networks abroad, were identified as issues of particular relevance to SMEs.

The specific challenges identified faced by SMEs in translating the benefits of FTAs point to the

need for improved communication, guides, events and outreach initiatives in Ireland to better con-

nect what the EU is negotiating for SMEs with how SMEs can then translate those advantages into

new export sales and bottom line impacts. It also points to the need for improving communication

and coordination across the system to ensure that there is a clear line of sight from the negotiation

outcomes at an EU level to relevant national enterprise agencies and representatives. In addition,

while dedicated SME chapters will help make it easier for SMEs to take advantage of new FTAs, it is

European Commission (2015).

European Commission (2015, p. 16).

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

important to note that many SMEs may also benefit indirectly from FTAs by being suppliers to

larger firms, that export directly to the given FTA partner countries. In order to ensure that SMEs

gain the most from new FTAs, it may therefore also be important to strengthen the role of SMEs in

domestic value chains with, for example, large multinational firms based in Ireland.

6.2.3 Increased international cooperation by standardising bodies

Non-tariff barriers include technical barriers to trade, which arise due to divergences in product

regulation and standards. Reducing these barriers is also an issue of priority for the European Com-

mission, which is committed to “address regulatory issues as a priority in negotiations and steer

greater cooperation in international regulatory fora, while maintaining high European standard”

and to “continue its efforts to eliminate non-tariff barriers through the enforcement of agreements

and regulatory cooperation”.

During the stakeholder engagements, this issue arose especially in connection with the EU-South

Korea FTA, where the perception was that progress in this area has so far been limited and that re-

inforcement of the cooperation between standardising bodies is needed. In this context, it would be

beneficial for the relevant Government Departments to conduct enhanced industry consultations on

this issue with regulatory bodies and with industry in order to identify a set of priority actions that

can help achieve better cooperation and reduce technical barriers to trade in product regulation and

standards.

6.2.4 Protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights

Protecting and enforcing intellectual property rights (IPR) is an important part of EU free trade

agreements and the European Commission is committed to pursuing the issue further in FTAs as

well as in the WTO.

This was for example seen in the EU-Canada FTA, which led to reinforced IP rights for European

pharmaceutical companies in Canada.

It is important that the Department of Enterrprise, Trade

and Employment continues to regularly engage with industry in this regard. Where IPR or technol-

ogy transfer concerns in FTA markets are identified, it is important for the relevant Departments

and Agencies, including regulatory bodies, to ensure companies can communicate them and that

they are articulated at EU level to ensure IP developed in Ireland is most appropriately protected.

6.2.5 Protection of geographical indications

A Geographical Indication (GI) is a sign that a product comes from a particular region which gives it

a specific quality, reputation or other characteristics (e.g. Irish Whiskey or Parma Ham etc.).

During the stakeholder meetings this issue was raised in relation to Irish Whiskey and Irish Cream

liqueurs, which are both covered by a GI. The protection of these GI’s under the EU-Canada FTA,

for example, has proven to be especially important in terms of the current effort to crack-down on

numerous cases of counterfeit Irish cream liqueurs on sale in Canada. This example highlights that

in addition to increasing market access, FTAs can have an enhanced safeguarding impact for Irish

GIs. There may be opportunities from FTAs for certain Irish producers to consider application for

GI status, which can help protect product identity in the markets where FTAs are in force.

European Commission (2015, p. 13).

European Commission (2015 p. 13).

European Commission (2015, p. 14).

European Commission (2013).

Irish Revenue, webpage.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

6.2.6 Distribution of EU TRQs for beef and sheep meat

An important issue for Irish beef and sheep farmers is the issue of EU TRQs. During the stakeholder

meetings this issue was raised several times. It is therefore considered essential that the terms of

any TRQ concessions in an FTA are carefully calibrated in terms of quantum, standards and quota

management. A TRQ must have regard to the capacity of partner countries to access the Quota on

the one hand and the demand for the product on the other. Often suitable phasing-in of Quotas best

allows the sensitive domestic market to adjust to the new competition, while also seeking new ex-

port market opportunities to offset inward market access.

In such sensitive sectors, the Irish Authorities should intensify collaboration with affected indus-

tries to prepare for increased levels of competition and adjust value offerings accordingly.

6.3 DOMESTIC POLICIES TO PURSUE THE

OPPORTUNITIES FROM EU FTAS AND MITIGATE

CHALLENGES

For Ireland to gain the most from the FTAs it is important that the export opportunities that arise

from the agreements are pursued to the maximum. During our engagement with stakeholders, a few

domestic policies to help ensure this was identified. Overall, these fall in to three categories:

• Policies to raise the awareness and understanding of FTAs

• Policies to help Irish firms access export markets in the FTA countries

• Policies to upgrade skills and promote R&D

6.3.1 Policies to raise awareness and understanding of FTAs

One of the key insights from the survey we conducted among Irish firms on impacts of the EU-

South Korea FTA is that the awareness of the FTA is relatively low among Irish firms. This conclu-

sion was further supported by engagement with stakeholders, where it also emerged that the issue is

not limited to the EU-South Korea FTA.

The need to improve awareness and understanding is not unique to Ireland. Analysis undertaken by

the Swedish National Trade Board in conjunction with UNCTAD shows that about two-thirds of EU

exports to partner countries use EU FTA preferential tariff rates.

This is based on the value of ex-

ports and, therefore, while most trade in terms of value takes advantage of the tariff reductions of

FTAs, the report concludes that there may be a large number of smaller companies that do not take

full advantage of FTAs. Similarly, research undertaken by Ecorys for the Netherlands’ Ministry of

Foreign Affairs shows the main barriers to making full use of FTAs are factors such lack of aware-

ness and understanding of FTAs, in addition to administrative burdens such as rules of origin re-

quirements and additional customs formalities. Companies also commented on the need to improve

the accessibility of information with more practical and targeted information oriented towards com-

pany needs.

For Ireland, it will be important for relevant Government Departments and Agencies to systemati-

cally engage with enterprises and their representative bodies with a view to maximising preferential

UNCTAD and the National Board of Trade Sweden (2018), The Use of the EU’s Free Trade Agreements.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

utilisation rates (PURs) of FTAs by Irish based exporters and importers and also better understand-

ing the information and administrative barriers companies face in capitalising on their benefits. In

this context, the recently established Trade and Investment Implementation Unit in the Depart-

ment of Enterprise, Trade and Employment will play a key role in in the promotion and implemen-

tation of FTAs in Ireland.

One of the ways in which awareness of the FTAs can be raised is by engaging local chambers of com-

merce across the country. The Chamber Trade Connections by County Carlow Chamber of Com-

merce, Industry and Tourism is an example of how this can be done, cf. Box 2. Similar events are

also undertaken by the Irish Exporters Association. Another suggestion that arose during the stake-

holder meetings, was to establish a common platform with information about EU FTAs and the

phasing out of tariffs.

Box 2 Chamber Trade Connections

In 2018, County Carlow Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism launched a new series of

events entitled Chamber Trade Connections, in order to support local firms to expand in new

or existing export markets. Each event in the series introduces local firms to a specific export

market of current or potential importance to Ireland.

The first event in the series took place on the 19

April 2018, and focused on the Netherlands,

which is one of Ireland’s largest export markets. As part of the event, the Dutch ambassador

came to Carlow to meet and visit local businesses, and to talk about trade connections be-

tween Ireland and the Netherlands. Members that already trade with the Netherlands were

also invited to talk about their experiences on the Dutch market. The event was open to all 185

members of the Chamber, which range from sole traders to multinational enterprises, as well as

non-members wishing to attend.

A further event was held on 11

of October 2019 with a focus on Mexico. The format was the

same as for the previous event and included a visit by the Mexican ambassador and a discus-

sion of new export opportunities arising from the EU-Mexican FTA.

Source: Interview with Brian Farrell, CEO of County Carlow Chamber and County Carlow Chamber’s website

A second issue raised by stakeholders related to the use of FTAs and rules of origin, which Irish ex-

porters must comply with in order to take advantage of the tariff reductions provided under the

FTAs. These rules specify how much of a given product (e.g. in terms of value added) must originate

from within each party of the agreement for the product to be eligible for preferential status. These

rules help avoid goods from third countries simply being “shipped” at preferential rates through one

FTA partner into the other.

The concern that arose during the stakeholder meetings is mainly related to Brexit and how this is

going to influence the ability of Irish firms to take advantage of EU FTAs, as value chains in many

sectors cross into the UK and may therefore influence the degree to which the product is seen as

originating from within the EU. Ensuring that these rules are understood by Irish firms therefore

becomes a more pressing issue due to Brexit. In most cases, the real challenges here can be best

met by a process of information sharing and “demystifying” the Rules of Origin systems.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

6.3.2 Policies to help Irish firms access export markets in the FTA

countries

In terms of enterprise policies two issues were raised, both of which concern market access. The

first of these relate to policies that can alleviate the costs for Irish exporters to gain access to far-

away markets. The types of policies identified to help Irish firms access export markets in the FTA

countries include policies that can help alleviate the financial cost of entering into new markets, in-

cluding increased trade finance, market access guides, training in customs procedures and finance

of innovation projects to back market research in a partner country. Specific recommendations

mentioned include:

• Ensuring that all Irish firms have easy access to export promotion services, including firms

that are not members of state agencies, such as for example Enterprise Ireland, or Bord

Bia. Therefore, training via government agencies may not be sufficient and it was sug-

gested that the use of private-public partnerships could have an important role to play

here.

• Ensuring additional funding for training in customs procedures. While this was a general

issue raised, the cost of customs procedures was identified as being disproportionate to

SMEs, as these types of firms often do not have specialised customs departments. Ensur-

ing that there is sufficient funding available for training in customs proceedings, may thus

be especially important for the ability of SMEs to take advantage of the new FTAs.

• Ensuring funding for training in market diversification skills, including training on how to

do business in the FTA countries.

• Ensuring that sufficient funding is available for trade promotion policies, such as trade

missions, were identified as being very important. This was, for example, pointed to as be-

ing a central factor to the success of Irish exports of spirits to Canada.

• Trade promotion activities (e.g. to promote Irish products in new markets).

• Trade facilitation initiatives to reduce costs of border procedures.

• Continued expansion of the pool of indigenous exporters.

• Transport and logistics investments to help export sectors.

Enterprise Ireland has developed a package of supports to assist companies grow and diversify in-

ternational sales. These include a dedicated Exporter Development Department which works with

companies considering exporting as a platform for scaling. It offers an online ‘Export Scorecard’ to

help companies assess their export readiness. Through its business planning services, it also assists

companies diagnose their capability and capacity for exporting across 6 Export Development Pil-

lars: Planning; People and Management; Sales and Marketing; Innovation; Operations and Finance.

This business planning process helps companies assess their strengths and weaknesses and deter-

mine where a company needs to enhance its capabilities to compete in Enterprise Ireland and,

therefore, enables Enterprise Ireland to target supports accordingly.

Other services include the Enterprise Ireland Market Research Centre which provides companies

access to business intelligence and research reports across regions and sectors, and market access

guides for companies. In addition, each year the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment

and Enterprise Ireland co-ordinates a comprehensive programme of trade missions, trade fairs and

knowledge events designed to give clients the opportunity to connect with existing and new custom-

ers, access decision makers, increase sales in international markets and exchange ideas.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Enterprise Ireland also offers a number of capability building supports targeted specifically at en-

hancing export sales including the International Selling Programme, Excel at Export Selling, the In-

ternet Marketing Unit, Business Accelerators (industry experts to support company development

in-market); Mentoring and the Graduate 4 Growth Programme. Finally, Enterprise Ireland has an

international network of over 40international offices that support companies directly in established

and growth markets through providing brokerage and introduction services, market information,

signposting services to help companies access supports in market and raising Ireland’s profile in-

country.

For Enterprise Ireland, there should be a continuing focus on developing the pipeline of potential

exporters and High Potential Start Ups (HPSUs) in order to grow the pool of companies with the

requisite capacity and capabilities to internationalise in line with Enterprise Ireland’s corporate

strategy objectives, particularly those relating to scaling.

With respect to the food sector two specific issues were furthermore raised. The first of these relate

to policies that can alleviate the costs for Irish food exporters to gain access to far-away markets,

where transportation cost can be high due to cooling requirements and so forth.

The second issue relates to the issue of ensuring actual market access for Irish meat exports to the

FTA countries. Currently, Ireland does not have access to Canada, Japan, Mexico and South Korea

for all meat products, cf. Table 7. While the FTAs set the framework, market access for meat prod-

ucts requires the recognition of the Irish system for meat production by the FTA partners. The ne-

gotiations for market access can take place bilaterally as in the case of the EU-South Korea FTA or

can be led by the European Commission as in the case of e.g. the EU-Mexico FTA.

Table 7

Market access for Irish exports of meat products to Canada, Japan, Mexico, and

South Korea

Country

Beef

Pigmeat

Sheep meat

Poultry meat

Canada

Yes

Japan

Yes

Mexico

South Korea

Yes

Note: The table shows whether or not Ireland currently has access to Canada, Japan, Mexico and South Ko-

rea for beef, pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat.

Source: Copenhagen Economics based on information from the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Ma-

rine

6.3.3 Policies to upgrade skills and promote R&D

OECD research modelling the effects of multilateral and regional trade agreements on growth and

employment shows positive effects for firms from FTAs, especially in smaller economies.

The re-

port concludes that firms in these economies can better specialise in international production net-

works through access to larger and more differentiated markets, while also benefiting from in-

OECD (2018), “Market Opening, Growth and Employment” OECD Trade Policy Papers No. 214.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

creased sales of the products they already produce. While trade integration boosts demand for pro-

duction and lifts wages, the production adjustment can also lead to reallocation of workers between

sectors. The report recommends that appropriate labour market and education policies are needed

to reduce adjustment costs for affected workers. Policies include effective activation frameworks,

anticipation of skills needs, and labour market inclusion programmes.

In Ireland, the work of the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs and upskilling/reskilling initiatives

will continue to be important for addressing changing skills needs that arise through evolving sec-

toral demands arising from international trade. Skills policies could also aim to invest in skills

which help to raise a company’s international ambitions such as international leadership and selling

programmes, therefore targeting greater diversification of the export base.

During the stakeholder meetings, the need for policies to upgrade language skills were also pointed

to as being of importance, especially in terms of seizing the opportunities offered by the FTAs with

countries in the far East. In the long run, this may be done via introducing new languages to the col-

lege curriculum such as e.g. Korean. In the shorter run, language obstacles may however also be al-

leviated by focusing on attracting foreign talent to Ireland.

In terms of R&D, efforts that may help extend the shelf life of agri-food products and develop Ire-

land as a brand to help Irish exporters distinguish their products on the export market, were re-

quested. This includes, in particular, research into the benefits of ‘grass fed’ beef and dairy, where

no global standard currently exists. More generally, innovation policy and supports will remain cen-

tral to Ireland’s international competitiveness and ability to develop new and improved products

and services for both existing and growth markets. In this regard, it is important that research fund-

ing by agencies such as Science Foundation Ireland and Enterprise Ireland will continue to target

investment at strategically important areas of commercial opportunity for enterprise.

6.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS

During the stakeholder meetings, a number of policy recommendations that would help ensure that

the maximum benefit for Ireland from the FTAs were identified. These included elements of special

importance to Ireland in EU trade policies, as well as domestic policies, including policies to raise

the awareness of FTAs, help Irish firms access export markets in new FTA countries and policies to

upgrade skills and promote R&D in Ireland.

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

APPENDIX A

LIST OF STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS

Alcohol Beverage Federation of Ireland

American Chambers of Commerce

Biopharmachem (IBEC)

Bord Bia

Bord Iascaigh Mhara

Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport

Chambers Ireland

Dairy Industry Ireland (IBEC)

Dept. of Agriculture Food and Marine

Department of Finance

Enterprise Ireland

Financial Services Ireland (IBEC)

Irish Cattle Sheep Farmers’ Association

IDA Ireland

Irish Exporters Association

Irish Farmers Association

Irish SME Association (ISME)

Irish Whiskey Association and the Irish Spirits Association

Meat Industry Ireland (IBEC)

Medtech Ireland (IBEC)

Ornua (Irish Dairy Board)

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

APPENDIX B

TECHNICAL APPENDIX

In order to quantify the impacts of the four EU FTAs on the Irish economy, we use a Computable

General Equilibrium (CGE) model (see below). A key input to the model is the expected reduction in

trade costs between the EU and each partner country. This includes both tariffs, TRQs and non-tar-

iff barriers. Below we describe the methodology used to estimate expected reductions in NTB costs.

Changes in tariffs and TRQs are explained in the text for the concluded FTAs.

Estimates of non-tariff barriers

We use the same type of econometric model to estimate already realized NTB reductions under EU-

South Korea FTA and the future expected NTB reductions under the concluded FTAs.

The model we use is a so-called gravity model, which is among the most used and tested empirical

models in international trade due to its high explanatory power. In an analogy to Newton’s law of

gravitation, the model predicts that trade between any two countries will be positively related to the

product of their economic size and inversely related to the geographical distance between them.

The basic idea of the model is to predict bilateral trade flows based on distance, GDP of each part-

ner, and standard “gravity variables” found to affect the volume of bilateral trade. These include,

among others, indicators for a common language, common border, and historical factors, such as,

for example a shared colonial history. Below we explain how we apply the model to estimate both

realised and future reductions in NTB costs.

Realised reductions in NTB costs under the EU-South Korea FTA

In order to estimate the impact of the EU-South Korea FTA on the reduction of NTB costs, we run

the gravity model at the sectoral level and include information on tariffs as well as a dummy varia-

ble equal to one after the FTA went into force and equal to zero before the FTA went into force. The

model captures the total impact of the FTA on bilateral trade flows across sectors. Combined with

information on trade elasticities across sectors

, obtained from the coefficient on the tariff variable,

we can deduct the overall reduction in trade costs required for the change in trade flows to have oc-

curred. As we know the reduction in tariffs from the tariff schedule of the agreement, we can fur-

thermore deduct the share of the overall reduction in trade costs due to NTB cost reductions.

Expected future reductions in NTB costs under the concluded FTAs and

for the EU-South Korea FTA in 2030

In order to estimate the future likely NTB reductions under the concluded agreements, we augment

the gravity model with information on the entry into force of different existing bilateral FTAs across

the world. Based on information on the depths of these FTAs, we estimate the average NTB reduc-

tions obtained under current deep FTAs, which we use as our estimate of expected NTB cost reduc-

tions for the concluded FTAs.

Figure 27 contains an overview of the methodologies used.

This tells us how sensitive trade flows are to changes in trade costs.

The European Commission use the same type of methodology in their assessment of current impacts of the EU-

South Korea FTA (see Civic Consulting, 2017).

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

Figure 27

Overview of methodology used to assess expected reductions in NTB costs

Source: Copenhagen Economics in cooperation with J. Francois

6.4.1 Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)

In the CGE model the entire economy is classified into production and consumption sectors. These

sectors are then modelled collectively. Production sectors are explicitly linked together in value-

added chains from primary goods, through higher stages of processing, to the final assembly of con-

sumption goods for households and governments. These links span borders as well as industries.

The link between sectors is both direct, such as with the input of steel into the production of

transport equipment, and indirect, as with the link between chemicals and agriculture through the

production of fertilizers and pesticides. Sectors are also linked through their competition for re-

sources (the primary factors of capital, labour, and land).

The model uses new trade data from the GTAP10 database, which among others includes global

trade flows on a sectoral level for goods and services.

Note that Irish CSO trade statistics deviate in several ways from GTAP data. For example, the CSO

data report services exports based on ownership and include exports from Irish affiliates based out-

side of Ireland. As GTAP data provides a better picture of the economic activity in Ireland, we use

this data to model the impact of the FTAs.

The Irish economy adjusts to changes in market access due to the entry into force of new EU trade

agreements in two steps:

Estimates of the realised NTB cost

reduction in the EU-Korea FTA

Estimates of the expected NTB cost

reductions in the concluded FTAs

• Bilateral t rade flows in both

goods and services are

modelled at the GTAP sector

level using a gravity model

• Controlling for a range of

factors (incl. tariffs) that impact

trade, we quantify the existing

NTB cost between any two

countries on a sectoral level

• By adding a variable with

information on the entry int o

force of bilateral FTAs, we

quant ify t he impact of specific

FTAs or types of FTAs on NTB

costs across sect ors

Econometric model Concluded FTAs

1. From t he gravity model, we

obtain the actual impact of

the EU-Korea FTA on Irish trade

with Korea (EU-Korea FTA

dummy variable for each

sector)

2. The trade cost reduction (in

addition to the reduction of

tariffs) required to generate

the trade increase in 1 is

calculat ed using trade

elasticities

EU-Korea FTA

1. From t he gravity model, we

obtain an estimate of the

existing NTB cost on t rade

between t he EU and each

partner count ry

2. We use t he average NTB cost

reduction for all deep and

comprehensive FTAs already in

place as an estimate of the

expect ed NTB cost reduct ions

in new EU FTAs

3. The average reduction in NTB

costs from (2) relat ive t o t he

existing NTB cost (1) gives t he

expect ed per cent reduction

in NTB costs between t he EU

and each part ner country

Impacts of EU FTAs on Ireland

1. The partial implementation of the EU-South Korea FTA

2. EU FTAs with Canada, Japan, Mexico, and the full implementation of the EU-South Korea

FTA

The model does not take into account any future unknown changes that may occur, for example un-

known exchange rate fluctuations etc.

The modelled cumulative impact from all FTAs is subsequently decomposed into the contribution

from each individual FTA, cf. Figure 28.

Figure 28

Cumulative impacts of EU FTAs are incorporated into the CGE model in two steps

Source: Copenhagen Economics in cooperation with J. Francois

Remaining tariffs in the EU FTA with South Korea are

phased out

2016

Conclusion

of CETA

2017

Conclusion

of the EU-

Japan EPA

2020

Brexit

2030

Long run

cumulative

impacts

Baseline growth

projection

without Brexit

and without

FTAs

Growth projection

with the partial

implementation of

the EU-South Korea

FTA but without the

concluded FTAs and

without Brexit

Growth projection

with the full

implementation of

the EU-South Korea

FTA and the

concluded FTAs

EU FTAs with Canada and Japan are implemented

EU FTA with Mexico is concluded and implemented

2015

Partial

implementation

of EU-South

Korea FTA

Decomposition of

cumulative

impacts of the

individual FTAs

and comparisons

with individual

impacts

REFERENCES

Bekkers, E. and J. Francois (2015) “Calibrating a CGE

model with NTBs that incorporates standard mod-

els of modern trade theory”, World Trade Institute

working paper for the EC FP7 project PRONTO

Bekkers, E., J. Francois and H. Rojas-Romagosa (2017)

”Melting icecaps and the economic impact of

opening the northern sea route”, Economic Jour-

nal

Bord Bia (2016), https://www.bordbia.ie/corpo-

rate/press/2016/Pages/AsiaTradeMission.aspx

Civic Consulting (2017) “Evaluation of the Implemen-

tation of the Free Trade Agreement between the

EU and its Member States and the Republic of Ko-

rea”, Interim technical part 1: Synthesis report,

prepared for the European Commission

Copenhagen Economics (2015) “TTIP impact in Ire-

land”, report prepared for the Irish Government

Copenhagen Economics (2016) “Impacts of EU trade

agreements on the agricultural sector”, Report

prepared for the European Commission

Copenhagen Economics (2018)” Ireland and the im-

pacts of Brexit: Strategic implications for Ireland

arising from the changing EU-UK trading relations”,

report prepared for the Irish Government

Copenhagen Economics (2019): “Framework for the

Future Relationship between the European Union

and the United Kingdom: Potential Impacts for Ire-

land”, report prepared for the Irish Government

Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine

(2017) “Creed Pushes for Progress on Beef Access

in Seoul”, News, 14

November 2017

Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine

(2017): “Market Access Report 2019-2020”

Egger, P., J. Francois, M. Manchin and D. Nelson

(2015) “Non-tariff barriers, integration and the

transatlantic economy”, Economic Policy

European Commission (2010) “EU-South Korea Free

Trade Agreement: A Quick Reading Guide”

European Commission (2011) “The EU-Korea Free

Trade Agreement in practice”

European Commission (2013) “The EU’s Free Trade

Agreement with Canada and its Interllectual

Property Rights provision”

European Commission (2015) “Trade for all: Towards a

more responsible trade and investment policy”

European Commission (2016a) “CETA- Summary of

the final negotiating results”

European Commission (2016b) “Impact Assessment

accompanying the document: Recommendation

for a Council Decision authorising the European

Commission and the High Representative of the

Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy to

open negotiations and to negotiate with Mexico

a modernised Global Agreement

European Commission (2017a) “CETA Overview: The 7

main parts of the agreement.”

European Commission (2017b) “EU Japan EPA – The

Agreement in Principle”

European Commission (2017c) “Key elements of the

EU-Japan Economic Partnership agreement”

European Commission (2017d)” The EU-Canada Eco-

nomic and Trade Agreement (CETA): Opening up

a wealth of opportunities for people in Ireland”

European Commission (2017h) “The EU-Canada Com-

prehensive Economic and Trade Agreement

(CETA): Opening up a wealth of opportunities for

people in Sweden”

European Commission (2017i), “Report on Implemen-

tation of EU Free Trade Agreements”

European Commission (2017j) “An introduction to the

EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement:

Opening up Japan’s market to European exports”

European Commission (2018) “New EU-Mexico agree-

ment: The agreement in principle”, Brussels 23 April

2018

European Commission (2018a) “Key elements of the

EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement”,

Strasbourg, 18 April 2018

European Commission (2018b) “An introduction to the

EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement:

Opening up Japan’s market to European ex-

ports”, July 2018

European Commission (2018c) “Proposal for a Council

Decision on the signing, on behalf of the Euro-

pean Union, of the Economic Partnership Agree-

ment between the European Union and Japan”

European Commission, (2018d), “EU exports to the

world: effects on employment”. Available at:

https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/no-

vember/tradoc_157516.pdf.

European Commission webpage (2019)

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/in-

dex.cfm?id=1976

European Parliament webpage (2018)

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-

train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-

policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-ceta

European Union (2011) “2011/265/EU: Council Deci-

sion of 16 September 2010 on the signing, on be-

half of the European Union, and provisional appli-

cation of the Free Trade Agreement between the

European Union and its Member States, of the one

part, and the Republic of Korea, of the other part”

OECD (2018) “Market Opening, Growth and Employ-

ment”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 214, OECD

Publishing, Paris