37
Staff’s ZEV compliance scenario updated in the 2017 ACC MTR, which showed the effect of
advanced ZEV technology and its interaction with the ZEV regulation.
233
Additionally,
technology costs have fallen significantly, namely battery costs, over the last 10 years and are
expected to continue to drop over time. This will make ZEVs cost-competitive with gasoline
vehicles in the 2030-2035 timeframe, if not sooner.
Building on 30 years of work to electrify light-duty vehicles in California, the market is clearly
poised for massive transformation. Every light duty vehicle manufacturer has made
commitments to electrify their product line.
234
For instance, in January 2021, General Motors
announced plans to become carbon neutral by 2040, including significant investments in
battery technology and a goal to shift its light-duty vehicles entirely to zero-emissions by
2035.
235
236
In March 2021, Volvo, announced plans to make only electric cars by 2030,
237
and
Volkswagen announced that it expects half of its U.S. vehicle sales will be all-electric by
2030.
238
In April 2021, Honda announced a plan to fully electrify its vehicles by 2040, with 40-
percent of its North American vehicle sales expected to be fully electric or fuel cell vehicles
by 2030, 80-percent by 2035 and 100-percent by 2040.
239
In May 2021, Ford announced that
it expects 40-percent of its global light-duty vehicle sales will be all-electric by 2030.
240
In
June 2021, Fiat announced a move to all-electric vehicles by 2030,
241
and in July 2021 its
parent corporation, Stellantis, announced an intensified focus on electrification across all its
brands.
242
Also in July 2021, Mercedes-Benz announced that all its new architectures would
be electric-only from 2025, with plans to become ready to go all-electric by 2030 where
233
CARB 2017e.
234
A list of all manufacturer announcements can be found in Appendix G.
235
NY Times 2021. Neal E. Boudette and Coral Davenport. 2021. “G.M. Will Sell Only Zero-Emission Vehicles by
2035.” New York Times. Updated Oct. 1, 2021. Accessed March 10, 2022.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html.
236
Cleantechnica.com 2022. “GM Announces $7 Billion Investment in EVs, Solid-State Battery Supply Chain”
CleanTechnica.com, Tina Casey. January 26, 2022. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/01/26/gm-buries-solid-
state-ev-battery-supply-chain-lede-under-historic-7-billion-auto-news/
237
Volvo 2021. Volvo Car Group, “Volvo Cars to be fully electric by 2030,” Press Release, March 2, 2021.
https://www.media.volvocars.com/us/en-us/media/pressreleases/277409/volvo-cars-to-be-fully-electric-by-2030
Accessed February 11, 2022.
238
VW 2021. Volkswagen Newsroom, “Strategy update at Volkswagen: The transformation to electromobility
was only the beginning,” March 5, 2021. Accessed June 15, 2021 at https://www.volkswagen-
newsroom.com/en/stories/strategy-update-at-volkswagen-the-transformation-to-electromobility-was-only-the-
beginning-6875 Accessed February 11, 2022.
239
Honda 2021. Honda News Room, “Summary of Honda Global CEO Inaugural Press Conference,” April 23,
2021. Accessed June 15, 2021 at https:
//global.honda/newsroom/news/2021/c210423eng.html Accessed
February 11, 2022.
240
Ford 2021. Ford Motor Company, “Superior Value From EVs, Commercial Business, Connected Services is
Strategic Focus of Today’s ‘Delivering Ford+’ Capital Markets Day,” Press Release, May 26, 2021.
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/26/capital-markets-day.html Accessed
February 11, 2022.
241
Stellantis 2021a. Stellantis, “World Environment Day 2021 – Comparing Visions: Olivier Francois and Stefano
Boeri, in Conversation to Rewrite the Future of Cities,” Press Release, June 4, 2021
https://www.media.stellantis.com/em-en/fiat/press/world-environment-day-2021-comparing-visions-olivier-
franois-and-stefano-boeri-in-conversation-to-rewrite-the-future-of-cities Accessed February 11, 2022.
242
Stellantis 2021b. Stellantis, “Stellantis Intensifies Electrification While Targeting Sustainable Double-Digit
Adjusted Operating Income Margins in the Mid-Term,” Press Release, July 8, 2021.
https://www.stellantis.com/en/news/press-releases/2021/july/stellantis-intensifies-electrification-while-targeting-
sustainable-double-digit-adjusted-operating-income-margins-in-the-mid-term Accessed February 11, 2022.