Model A: universal health care, state administration ................................................................................................ 16
Model A: eligibility, covered benefits ..................................................................................................................... 16
Table 10: assumptions for Model A ............................................................................................................... 16
Model A: expenditure projections ......................................................................................................................... 17
Implementation year estimates ......................................................................................................................... 17
Table 11: Model A calendar year 2022 expenditures – implementation year ($ in millions) ....................... 17
Figure 2: status quo vs. Model A – program year 1 expenditures (in millions) ............................................. 18
Steady state estimates ....................................................................................................................................... 18
Table 12: Model A steady state expenditures – based on 2022 costs ($ in millions) .................................... 19
Figure 3: status quo vs. Model A - steady state revenues (in millions) ......................................................... 20
Model A: estimated multi-year change in program expenditures ......................................................................... 20
Table 13: five-year growth rates and estimated change in program expenditures based on different
starting dates ($ in millions) .......................................................................................................................... 21
Model A: revenue sources...................................................................................................................................... 21
Table 14: Model A calendar year 2022 revenue sources – implementation year (in millions) ..................... 21
Figure 4: status quo vs. Model A – program year 1 revenues (in millions) ................................................... 22
Table 15: Model A calendar year 2022 revenue sources – steady state ....................................................... 23
Model A: Medicare impact ..................................................................................................................................... 23
Table 16: reimbursement level target before efficiency adjustments .......................................................... 24
Model B: universal health care, delegated administration ........................................................................................ 24
Model B: eligibility, covered benefits ..................................................................................................................... 25
Table 17: assumptions for Model B ............................................................................................................... 25
Model B: expenditures ........................................................................................................................................... 25
Table 18: Model B calendar year 2022 expenditures – implementation year (in millions)........................... 26
Figure 5: status quo vs. Model B – program year 1 expenditures (in millions) ............................................. 27
Model B: revenue sources ...................................................................................................................................... 27
Table 19: Model B calendar year 2022 revenue sources – implementation year (in millions) ..................... 28
Figure 6: status quo vs. Model B – program year 1 revenues (in millions) ................................................... 29
Model C: “fill in the gaps” for people without coverage ............................................................................................ 29
Model C: eligibility, covered benefits ..................................................................................................................... 29
Table 20: assumptions for Model C ............................................................................................................... 30
Cascade Care subsidy analysis ........................................................................................................................... 30
Table 21. Wakely: best estimate premium subsidy results by scenario ........................................................ 31
Model C: expenditures ........................................................................................................................................... 32
Table 22: cost estimate of Model C (in millions) ........................................................................................... 32
Financial impact of Models A, B, and C .................................................................................................................. 32
Table 23: model comparison calendar year 2022 expenditures – implementation costs excluding dental (in
millions) ......................................................................................................................................................... 32
Limitations .................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Federal financial participation ................................................................................................................................ 33
Additional data analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 33
Qualitative assessment of potential models ............................................................................................................ 34
Access ......................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Governance ................................................................................................................................................................ 34
Quality and equity ...................................................................................................................................................... 34
Administration ............................................................................................................................................................ 35